基于主体适应网络的中国水短缺风险在全球价值链中的传导机制与管理策略研究

世界新格局和中国发展新阶段导致全球进入资源整合的新时代。这一转变以全球价值链重构为基础，在推动生态要素转移和再分配的同时，也加剧了系统性风险。水资源，是经济发展的核心要素之一；水资源短缺，也是世界各国面临的制约因素和潜在危机；这一问题威胁着全球价值链的稳定。我国在全球价值链中处于核心地位，做好水资源短缺风险管理至关重要。本研究首先构建水短缺风险评估框架，对我国区域产业部门水短缺风险进行测度；然后，以主体调整适应风险为出发点，将复杂网络应用于投入产出分析，构建主体适应产业网络模型，识别我国产业在全球价值链中关键节点，并基于风险管理理论，从时空角度评估关键节点所在产业链的水短缺风险引发的经济损失；最后，对关键节点水资源脆弱性开展敏感性分析，探讨不同程度风险冲击下的预期损失，并提出管理策略。本研究可以为我国深度参与全球价值链提供有力支撑，并且有助于提高全球价值链应对风险的韧性。

The new world order and the new stage of China's development have led the world to enter a new era of resource integration. This transformation is based on the reconstruction of global value chains. While promoting the transfer and redistribution of ecological elements, it also exacerbates systemic risks. Water resources are one of the core elements of economic development; water shortages are also constraints and potential crises faced by countries worldwide; this problem threatens the global value chain's stability. China is at the core of the global value chain, and it is imperative to manage water shortage risks. This study firstly constructs a water shortage risk assessment framework to measure the water shortage risk of China’s regional industrial sectors. Secondly, we apply the agent adjustment and adaptation risk approach and the complex network to the input-output analysis, to identify the position of China’s industry in the global value chain. Based on risk management theory, we evaluate the economic loss caused by the water shortage from the perspective of spatiotemporal analysis. Finally, we carry out the sensitivity analysis of water vulnerability at the critical nodes of the global value chain. We also discuss the expected loss under the varies degrees of risk and propose management strategies. This research can provide strong support for my country's deep participation in the global value chain and improve the global value chain's resilience to respond to risks.