中国地方政府债券的利率期限结构研究

随着我国地方政府债券的发行逐步规范化，出现了多种期限、多种利率的地方政府债券。对地方政府债券的利率期限结构进行研究已经成为全面分析我国地方政府债务问题的一个重要方面。地方政府债券的利率期限结构存在很多不同于国债的特有问题，其内容更加复杂。本项目基于我国地方政府债务的发展现状，提出“市场分割”假说和“风险溢价”假说，以解释不同地区的地方政府债券之间的利差以及中央政府债券和地方政府债券之间的利差。本项目根据这两个假说构建理论模型，采用2003-2016年的地方政府性债券数据，拟合典型地区的地方政府债券的收益率曲线，研究同一期限、不同地方政府债券的利差的形成过程，并构建代表性地方政府债券，研究中央政府债券和地方政府债券之间的利率期限结构，为中央政府和地方政府调整债券的利率期限结构提供参考依据。

With the gradual standardization of the issuance of local government bonds in China, there have been various government bonds with various maturity and interest rates. The study of term structure of interest rate of local government bonds has become an important aspect of comprehensive analysis of the local government debt. There are many unique issues in the term structure of interest rates of local government bonds, which are more complicated than that of federal government bonds. According to the present situation of local government bonds in China, this project proposes the "market segmentation" hypothesis and "risk premium" hypothesis to explain the interest rate differences of local government bonds in different regions and the interest rate differences between central government bonds and local government bonds. Using data from 2003 to 2016, this project intends to fit the yield curve of the local government bonds in the typical areas, and extends the theoretical model to study the formation of the interest rate difference of local government bonds in different regions, and the term structure of interest rates between central government bonds and local government bonds.