云-辐射反馈过程对东亚-西北太平洋地区海气相互作用的影响及其气候模式模拟的不确定性

云及其气候效应是造成气候模式结果不确定性的重要环节。本项目拟针对东亚-西北太平洋这一直接影响中国气候的特殊区域，使用包括卫星资料在内的多种观测资料，揭示该区域云的分布特征，讨论其辐射效应与东亚-西北太平洋SST的联系。以此为基础检验CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - Phase 5) 和CFMIP (cloud feedback Model Intercomparison Project)模式的云模拟偏差及其对SST的影响；使用美国大气研究中心的CESM和中国科学院大气物理研究所气候系统模式FGOALS，采用美国西北太平洋实验室(PNNL)发展的参数扰动及其敏感性分析SA方法，通过改变云参数进行敏感性测试，定量分析影响季风区的关键云参数和物理过程，优化模式改进模拟，并在此基础上研究季风区云反馈过程对局地海气相互作用的影响。

Cloud and its climatic effects remains the largest contributor to uncertainty in current climate model. In this project, we will focus on the East Asia-Northwestern Pacific ocean region to investigate the local cloud properties and the mechanisms for cloud radiations impacts on the underlying SST by using diverse datasets, including satellite data. Then the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CFMIP (cloud feedback Model Intercomparison Project) results are studied to assess their performances in simulating cloud and inspect the relationship between cloud and SST. We have applied a Sensitivity Analysis (SA) framework to analyze the variation of cloud due to perturbations in tunable parameters in the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 and Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model that are developed by National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). The contributions of cloud feedback to local air-sea interaction are also studied and quantified.