增长约束下的环境治理：以火电厂气体排放和公共健康为视角

在保障经济增长的前提下对环境实施保护是实践"科学发展观"和"建立环境友好型社会"的必要条件，该问题具有显著的学术价值及重要的政策含义。而转变经济增长方式离不开对特定产业政策潜在环境成本的量化及对公共健康影响的严谨研究，这正是现有文献不足。因此，将量化的环境成本及影响纳入考量范围无疑有助于提高我国公共政策制定的效率。 利用全国疾病监测系统死因监测数据库并将2005年新增的1056个火电厂作为自然实验，本课题试图采用非连续回归及PMG方法检验电厂二氧化硫排放对公共健康的影响并量化其环境成本。本课题将完成两个目标：第一，检验气体排放对居民健康的影响，其重点是呼吸系统相关疾病；第二，量化废气排放造成的环境成本。这些成本包括：个体成本（医疗费用及预期寿命缩短的机会成本）、地区成本（例如招商引资的降低及人才流失）以及国家成本（例如新增国家医保支出等）。

By estimating the potential environmental costs and effects of specific industrial policy in China, this grant application aims to improve the efficiency of current public policy. The academic value and social applications of this project is promising. Using systematic data set (China Public Health Information Classification and Basic Data Set Standard) developed by Centre on Public Health Science of China and 1056 coal-fired power stations built in 2005 as natural experiment, this project will fulfill two objects: firstly, examines the effects of sulfur dioxide for plants on mortality of respiratory system related cancers and, secondly, estimate their costs on health. Meanwhile, severing as identification strategies, Difference-in-differences method and Pooled Mean Group method conducted in this project are also considered as academic contribution.