基于长时序卫星反演的中国氮氧化物排放演变驱动机制

氮氧化物（NOx）是细颗粒物和臭氧的共同前体物，其人为源排放在城市和区域尺度上对空气质量具有重要影响，长期监测NOx人为源排放并准确解析其时空演变的驱动机制是保障我国环境空气质量持续改善的关键技术。目前排放变化的驱动机制研究以定性分析为主，并且以源清单作为主要数据来源，对排放时空格局的认识存在很大局限性。本项目面向我国区域性复合污染控制需求，开发基于卫星遥感的NOx排放监测体系，改进反演算法提升卫星遥感对我国小尺度目标长期观测的能力。在此基础上，自上而下估算近25年我国及周边国家NOx排放量，定量表征排放变化对社会、经济、能源因子的响应规律，阐明排放演变驱动机制。本研究为我国NOx源排放近实时监测、重污染天气预警预报及中长期减排措施的制定提供科学依据。

Nitrogen oxides (NOx) serve as major precursors of fine particulate matter and surface ozone, leaving important impacts on regional air quality. Long-term monitoring of anthropogenic NOx emissions and accurate knowledge of emission evolution’s drivers are of great importance. Current research on emission evolution’s drivers mainly focuses on qualitative analysis using bottom-up emission inventories, which are considered highly uncertain. The project aims at top-down NOx emission dataset using satellite remote sensing technique and qualitative analysis of the driving mechanisms of China’s emission variations. The research improves the satellite retrieval algorithm to refine the accuracy, resolution, and volume of satellite observations, based on which top-down constraints of NOx emissions are efficiently derived. In addition, this work identifies the Asian emission variations during the previous 25 years and quantifies the driving mechanisms of anthropogenic NOx emission evolutions. Results of this project will offer scientific basis for emission monitoring, air pollution forecast and air quality control strategy.