贸易和产业政策干预的实际效果：基于结构式和简约式估计方法的实证研究

干预性的贸易和产业政策在发展中国家包括中国被广泛采用,然而其实际效果仍有待考量。从出口企业的角度考虑，政策干预首先会影响出口企业的供给和价格，进而影响价值。其次干预会影响企业进入或退出市场的选择，新企业进入对外贸增长贡献巨大。第三，由于不同企业具有不同的生产率和需求不确定性，因此政策对异质企业的影响也是异质的。第四，企业具有前瞻性，能够预计到政策干预的变动而提前调整投资或生产。最后，企业出口本身是一个动态过程，在出口中企业能够积累经验，提高生产率，产生良性的"学习效应"。本课题选取我国外贸经营权放开和增值税出口退税这两个代表性的干预政策调整，从企业数据入手，对以上问题进行研究。通过构建异质性企业模型，并采用结构式估计和简约式估计相结合的实证方法，我们希望能够测度出干预政策对出口企业的实际影响。本课题的研究成果将能够填补国内政策研究在微观层面的薄弱点，同时也为政策制定提供有益的参考。

Interventionist trade and industrial policies have been widely implemented in many developing countries, including China. The real effects of those policies, however, still need rigorous empirical investigation. From the perpective of exporting firms, first of all, policy internvention affects firm's export supply and price, and therefore export value. Secondly intervention will affect firm's decision to enter or exit the market, which contributes a lot to the growth in trade volume. Thirdly, firms face heterogeneous productivity and demand shocks, thus policy intervention will also have heterogeneous effects on different firms. Fourthly, firms are forward looking, so they will adjust their investment and output in advance before the policy adjustment. Lastly,firms' export is a dynamic process, and firms can enhance productivity through accumulating experience and learning from exporting. In this proposed project, we select two representative interventionist policies implemented in China, and adopt firm-level data to study research questions listed above. We expect to precisely measure the real effects of interventionist policies on exporting firms. For this purpose, we will set up a theoretical model with heterogeneous firms. Empirically, we adopt both structural form and reduced-form estimation approaches. Our research will contribute to the current literature on policy rearch at micro level. Our research findings will also provide valuable suggestions to policy makers.