东北地区种粮大户耕地利用效率定量评估与优化调控研究

基于问卷调查、半结构访谈以及普查数据，本项目系统分析东北地区种粮大户的典型特征，应用结构方程模型（SEM）揭示其生产要素投入过程的主观意愿与影响因素；构建包含耕地、劳动力、资本等多投入指标与农业产值、粮食产量等多产出指标的全要素耕地利用效率研究框架体系，运用数据包络分析（DEA）、Tobit等计量模型定量测算种粮大户耕地利用效率，明确不同投入变量、主观意愿以及地理因素的影响强度与作用机制；基于系统动力学模型，多情景模拟不同生产要素配置方式对种粮大户耕地利用效率的影响，提出优化配置方案。以期在理论上丰富农户分化视角的耕地利用效率研究，在实践上为东北地区种粮大户培育和保障国家粮食安全提供科学参考。

Based on questionnaires, semi-structured interviews and census data, the project analyzes comprehensively the typical characteristics of large-scale grain-production household in northeast China, illustrates the subjective willingness of production inputs and its impact factors; constructs the indicators system including land, labor, capital, gross value of agriculture production and volume of grain yield to assess the cultivated land use efficiency, measures the land use efficiency using the methods of DEA and Tobit regression models to reveal the extent and mechanism of impact factors such as input elements, subjective willingness and geographic factors; stimulates the effects of production element allocation on arable land use efficiency under multi-scenario using system dynamics, and provides optimization plans on production element allocation. The research results can enrich the theoretical studies on cultivated land use efficiency from the viewpoint of farm household differentiation and provide scientific guidance to cultivating large-scale grain-production household and safeguarding national grain security.