"推荐-采纳"模式下病毒营销用户影响传播机制研究

病毒营销是基于社会网络，通过用户口口相传的一种社会化网络营销方式。目前大多研究都是采用案例或实证分析的方法，而从用户微观营销行为的角度采用定量方法对病毒营销传播的微观机理进行研究的很少。"推荐"和"采纳"是病毒营销中两个重要的用户行为，对分析病毒营销传播的内在机理有重要作用。本课题从用户微观行为的角度，采用社会网络分析、图论和动态优化等方法，对"推荐-采纳"模式下病毒营销用户影响传播机制进行深入研究，课题紧紧围绕病毒营销传播的微观动力学机制和病毒营销用户影响特征两个关键科学问题开展研究，具体包括面向病毒营销的K阶影响传播模型研究、病毒营销传播模式的挖掘与分析、病毒营销关键用户发现、病毒营销种子用户选择，以及病毒营销传播效率预测等五个问题，并以淘宝网为例，设计一套相对完整的病毒营销应用方案。课题希望从微观角度对病毒营销内在机理研究，使病毒营销过程不再是"黑箱"，而是可控制、可管理和可评估的。

Viral Marketing is a social network marketing strategy working by Word-of-Mouth based on social network. Currently, most research on viral marketing are made by case study method, and there is very little research based on users micro-behavoir. Both 'Recommendation' and 'Adoption' are two key user behavior in viral marketing, which have important role in analyzing the propagating mechanism of viral marketing. Based on analyzing about user micro-behavior, in this proposal, the authors will make research on the propagating mechanism of user influence closely around two key scientific issues, respectively microscopic propagating kinetic mechanisms and user influence characteristics. It include specific research issues, respectively K order influence spread model, data mining and analysis on viral marketing propagating pattern, finding influential user in viral marketing, selecting seed user for viral marketing, as well as viral marketing propagating efficiency. Based on above theory research, taking taobao.com as an case, the authors will design a set of complete viral marketing application solutions. By research and analysis on influence mechanism of viral marketing, the author hope that viral marketing process is not a black-box, but controlable, managable and valuable.