中国国家治理与长期经济发展的历史数据构建及计量分析

我国是世界上最早建立郡县及文官选拔制度的国家，并为其他很多国家所借鉴。但当前针对上述两方面研究主要集中在现当代，对我国国家治理历史传统的研究依然缺乏系统数据及相关实证检验。本课题试图从两方面弥补这一不足：首先，我们将建立郡县制实施、明清及民国官员选拔流动及社会经济（技术进步、人口、粮价、天气及冲突等）数据库；其次，结合前沿文献及计量方法探索国家治理变迁的决定因素及潜在影响。..本项目具有显著特色及创新之处：首先，基于系统数据的实证分析可为检验现有理论提供证据。同时，系统数据也可作为基础启发后续研究；其次，结合一般文献对我国国家治理传统展开研究可以突破断代史研究的不足，能够在一个统一框架下对央地关系及官员选拔等重要问题展开长时段分析，其结论有利于我们理解中国近代以来经济与社会转型过程中呈现的特征、成因及后果；最后，由此获得的发现及结论有助于我们吸收之前的经验教训，为当下大国治理提供借鉴。

China has been known as the first to establish its junxian and civil service examination systems in the human history which have been followed and adopted by many other countries. Existing studies on xunjian and civil service examination systems mainly focus on the modern time and are lack of systematic data and empirical examination on China’s governance tradition. This project attempts to fill the research gap in two ways. First, we will construct a database including the information on adoption and diffusion of junxian system, government officials’ selection and mobility, and related socio-economic indicators (i.e., technology progress, population, grain food prices, weather condition and social conflicts). Second, we will also explore both the determinants and impacts of the state governance evolution using the pioneer literature and advanced econometric methods...This project has several significant contributions. First, empirical analysis based on our systematic data would not only provide a good opportunity to examine existing theories, but also inspire follow-up research. Second, studying China’s governance tradition with general theories could fill the research gap on the studies of Chinese dynastic history. The analysis on the central-local relations and the political selection based on historic data could help us understand the characteristics, determinants, and consequences of China’s economic and social transitions during the modern time and onward. Finally, the findings and conclusions of this project would provide some insights in the governance of a great power in today’s China.