中国老年人基本生活费用测算和预测研究

本项目旨在明确中国老年人维持正常生活所需要的基本生活费用构成，尽管他们可能生活在不同的环境中，处于不同的年龄阶段、不同的居住城市、可能是房东或者租客、以及不同的健康状况。为了让政府和社会更深入地了解老年人需要的经济保障水平，项目将对中国代表性城市老年人基本生活费用进行测算，并基于ARIMA和GM（1，1）模型对生活费用进行5-10年预测。项目试图回答：老年人的基本生活费用构成具有什么特征？生活费用是如何随着老年人的身体情况和生活环境变化而变化的？什么样的费用分摊机制（包括养老金、储蓄、社会保险、政府补贴及其他来源）才能让老年人安享晚年。本研究是中国少有的针对老年人而不是一般成年人的基本生活费用测算和预测研究。这些生活费用信息对于老年人、未来退休人员、政府决策者和保险精算师评估成年人退休所需的最低收入水平、调整养老金和社会保障计划具有重要意义。

Our research undertakes to determine the basic living expenses required by Chinese seniors living in different circumstances in terms of age, city of residence, homeowner or renter and health status. The economic security for the elderly should be known by the government and individuals. The project will count and predict the basic living expenses for the elderly based on the model of ARIMA and GM(1,1). These expenses data will come from China's large and medium-sized cities. The Elder Basic Living Expenses（EBLE）helps us answer key questions: What are the structural characteristics of the basic living expenses of the elderly? How do living expenses change as health status and life circumstances change? What kind of cost sharing mechanism can make the elderly enjoy their old age? Such as pension policy, personal savings, social insurance, government subsidies and other income source arrangements. The research is unique because it is the first Chinese study of absolute basic living expenses calculation and prediction for seniors, rather than simply to adults in general. This information is important and meaningful to seniors, prospective retirees, policy makers and actuaries in assessing the minimum level of income required in retirement, and the adjustment of pension and social security plans.