中国近海海洋热浪历史时期与未来变化特征及影响机制研究

海洋热浪是海洋中发生的极端高温现象，会对海洋生态系统产生重大影响，受到人们的广泛关注。中国近海是受全球气候变化影响的敏感区域，同时也面临着严重的渔业资源衰退和珊瑚礁白化等问题。研究表明，受全球变暖影响，海洋热浪发生的年均总天数比20世纪初增加超过50%，且未来破坏力越来越强。然而，目前对中国近海海洋热浪长时间变化规律与影响机制仍不明确。为此，本项目以高分辨率观测数据为基础，结合最新的气候模式模拟数据，分析历史时期和未来不同共享社会经济路径下中国近海海洋热浪长时间变化规律；利用多源再分析资料，从个例探究、分区整合两个层面揭示影响海洋热浪的潜在物理机制，并探究其主要模态对区域气候变化的作用；从物种耐热阈值和耐热时间出发，开展中国近海海洋热浪风险等级评估。研究结果可以为我国海洋牧场建设及珊瑚礁白化监控提供理论依据和科学支撑，符合国家海洋防灾减灾和科学应对气候变化的重大战略需求。

Marine heatwave is an extreme high temperature phenomenon occurring in the ocean, which has a significant impact on the marine ecosystem and has been attracted widely attention. China's offshore waters are sensitive region to the global climate change and are also facing serious problems such as declining fishery resources and coral bleaching. The total number of days of marine heatwaves per year has increased by more than 50% since the beginning of the 20th century due to global warming, and they will become more destructive in the future. However, the long-term variation pattern and influence mechanism of marine heatwave over China's offshore waters are still unclear. Therefore, this project, based on high-resolution observation data, combined with the latest climate model simulation data, analyzes the long-term variation patterns of marine heatwaves in China offshore waters under different shared socio-economic paths in the historical period and the future. Using multi-source reanalysis data, we explored the potential physical mechanism of marine heatwave from the perspectives of individual cases and regional integration, and discussed the role of its main modes on regional climate change. Based on the heat tolerance threshold and heat tolerance time of marine species, the risk classification of marine heatwave in the offshore China was carried out. The results can provide theoretical basis and scientific support for the construction of marine ranches and the monitoring of coral bleaching in China, and meet the major strategic needs of national marine disaster prevention and mitigation and scientific response to climate change.