Chapter 15: Impact of tobacco control on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975-2000--summary and limitations.
Chapter 15: Impact of tobacco control on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975-2000--summary and limitations.
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01827.x
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发表时间：
2012-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Levy DT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boer R;Moolgavkar SH;Levy DT
一个由六个研究小组组成的联盟估计了在卫生部长的报告发表前后开始的吸烟行为改变对肺癌死亡率的影响。本章将介绍这种努力的结果。我们量化了1975-2000年间美国吸烟行为变化对肺癌死亡率的累积影响。这六个小组使用共同的输入和独立的模型来估计1975-2000年期间由于50年代中期开始的吸烟行为的改变而避免的美国肺癌死亡人数，以及如果烟草控制在1964年发布第一份关于吸烟与健康的外科医生报告（SGR）之后完全消除了所有吸烟，则可以避免的死亡人数。由于自1950年代以来吸烟行为的改变，1975-2000年期间避免了大约79.5万人死亡（55万名男子和24.5万名妇女）。仅在2000年一年，就避免了大约7万例肺癌死亡（男性44 000例，女性26 000例）。然而，在1975年至2000年期间，如果完全消除吸烟，这些死亡人数约占肺癌死亡人数的30%。在1991年至2000年的十年间，这一比例增加到37%左右。我们的研究结果显示，自20世纪50年代以来，吸烟行为的变化产生了重大影响。尽管改变吸烟行为会产生重大影响，但仍需要努力控制烟草，以进一步减轻这种疾病的负担。
A consortium of six research groups estimated the impact on lung cancer mortality of changes in smoking behavior that began around the publication of the surgeon general’s report. This chapter presents the results of that effort. We quantified the cumulative impact of changes in smoking behaviors on lung cancer mortality in the U.S. over the period 1975–2000. The six groups used common inputs and independent models to estimate the number of U.S. lung cancer deaths averted over the period 1975–2000 as a result of changes in smoking behavior beginning in the mid-fifties, and the number of deaths that could have been averted if tobacco control had completely eliminated all smoking following issuance of the first Surgeon General’s report (SGR) on Smoking and Health in 1964. Approximately 795,000 deaths (550,000 men and 245,000 women) were averted over the period 1975–2000 as a result of changes in smoking behavior since in 1950s. In the year 2000 alone approximately 70,000 lung cancer deaths were averted (44,000 among men and 26,000 among women). However, these represent approximately 30% of lung cancer deaths that could have potentially been averted over the period 1975–2000 if smoking was eliminated completely. In the ten-year period 1991–2000, this fraction increased to about 37%. Our results show the substantial impact of changes in smoking behavior since the 1950s. Despite a major impact of changing smoking behaviors, tobacco control effort are still needed to further reduce the burden of this disease.
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DOI：
10.1093/jnci/djs136
发表时间：
2012-04-04
期刊：
Journal of the National Cancer Institute
影响因子：
--
作者：
Moolgavkar SH;Holford TR;Levy DT;Kong CY;Foy M;Clarke L;Jeon J;Hazelton WD;Meza R;Schultz F;McCarthy W;Boer R;Gorlova O;Gazelle GS;Kimmel M;McMahon PM;de Koning HJ;Feuer EJ
通讯作者：
Feuer EJ
影响因子：
120.7
作者：
Kenfield, Stacey A.;Stampfer, Meir J.;Colditz, Graham A.
通讯作者：
Colditz, Graham A.
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Meza, Rafael;Hazelton, William D.;Moolgavkar, Suresh H.
通讯作者：
Moolgavkar, Suresh H.
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Hazelton, WD;Clements, MS;Moolgavkar, SH
通讯作者：
Moolgavkar, SH
影响因子：
10.3
作者：
Devesa, SS;Grauman, DJ;Fraumeni, JF
通讯作者：
Fraumeni, JF