Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000.
Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1093/jnci/djs136
复制
发表时间：
2012-04-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Feuer EJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moolgavkar SH;Holford TR;Levy DT;Kong CY;Foy M;Clarke L;Jeon J;Hazelton WD;Meza R;Schultz F;McCarthy W;Boer R;Gorlova O;Gazelle GS;Kimmel M;McMahon PM;de Koning HJ;Feuer EJ
自 20 世纪 50 年代中期以来，美国在烟草控制战略上投入了大量精力。 However, we have little quantitative information on how changes in smoking behaviors have impacted lung cancer mortality.我们量化了 20 世纪 50 年代中期开始的吸烟行为变化对 1975 年至 2000 年美国肺癌死亡率的累积影响。由六组研究人员组成的联盟使用共同输入（包括 1890 年至 1970 年出生队列的模拟队列吸烟史）和独立模型来估计 1975 年至 2000 年期间由于 20 世纪 50 年代中期开始的吸烟行为改变而避免的美国肺癌死亡人数。我们还估计了在 1964 年卫生局局长第一份关于吸烟与健康的报告之后，如果烟草控制能够完全有效地消除吸烟，本可以避免的死亡人数。在 1975 年至 2000 年期间，美国大约避免了 795 851 例肺癌死亡：其中男性 552 574 例，女性 243 277 例。仅 2000 年一年，就避免了大约 70 218 例肺癌死亡：男性 44 135 例，女性 26 083 例。然而，这些数字估计代表了 1975-2000 年期间本可以避免的肺癌死亡的约 32%、1991-2000 年本可以避免的肺癌死亡的 38%、以及 2000 年本可以避免的肺癌死亡的 44%。我们的结果反映了自 20 世纪 50 年代以来吸烟行为变化的累积影响。尽管改变吸烟行为对肺癌死亡有很大影响，但肺癌仍然是一个主要的公共卫生问题。继续努力控制烟草对于进一步减轻这种疾病的负担至关重要。
Considerable effort has been expended on tobacco control strategies in the United States since the mid-1950s. However, we have little quantitative information on how changes in smoking behaviors have impacted lung cancer mortality. We quantified the cumulative impact of changes in smoking behaviors that started in the mid-1950s on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975–2000. A consortium of six groups of investigators used common inputs consisting of simulated cohort-wise smoking histories for the birth cohorts of 1890 through 1970 and independent models to estimate the number of US lung cancer deaths averted during 1975–2000 as a result of changes in smoking behavior that began in the mid-1950s. We also estimated the number of deaths that could have been averted had tobacco control been completely effective in eliminating smoking after the Surgeon General’s first report on Smoking and Health in 1964. Approximately 795 851 US lung cancer deaths were averted during the period 1975–2000: 552 574 among men and 243 277 among women. In the year 2000 alone, approximately 70 218 lung cancer deaths were averted: 44 135 among men and 26 083 among women. However, these numbers are estimated to represent approximately 32% of lung cancer deaths that could have potentially been averted during the period 1975–2000, 38% of the lung cancer deaths that could have been averted in 1991–2000, and 44% of lung cancer deaths that could have been averted in 2000. Our results reflect the cumulative impact of changes in smoking behavior since the 1950s. Despite a large impact of changing smoking behaviors on lung cancer deaths, lung cancer remains a major public health problem. Continued efforts at tobacco control are critical to further reduce the burden of this disease.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.222118199
发表时间：
2002-11-12
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Luebeck, EG;Moolgavkar, SH
通讯作者：
Moolgavkar, SH
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Kopp-Schneider, A
通讯作者：
Kopp-Schneider, A
影响因子：
11.2
作者：
Meza, Rafael;Jeon, Jihyoun;Luebeck, E. Georg
通讯作者：
Luebeck, E. Georg
影响因子：
254.7
作者：
Cokkinides, Vilma;Bandi, Priti;Ward, Elizabeth
通讯作者：
Ward, Elizabeth
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Meza, Rafael;Hazelton, William D.;Moolgavkar, Suresh H.
通讯作者：
Moolgavkar, Suresh H.