A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments
A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments
复制标题
一种在 Ecotron 实验中评估气候变化影响的新方法
DOI：
10.1007/s00484-020-01951-8
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
W. Thiery
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Inne Vanderkelen;J. Zscheischler;L. Gudmundsson;K. Keuler;F. Rineau;N. Beenaerts;J. Vangronsveld;S. Vicca;W. Thiery
Ecotron设施可以精确控制许多环境变量，并对生态系统过程进行广泛监测。因此，它们需要对气候变量进行多变量扰动，使其接近于在实地观测到的情况和对未来的预测。在这里，我们提出了一种新的方法来创建真实的气候强迫操作实验，并将其应用于UHasselt Ecotron实验。新方法使用的数据来自现有的最佳区域气候模式预估，包括沿代表全球平均气温异常越来越高的梯度产生气候强迫。我们首先根据两个标准从欧洲区域协调区域降尺度实验（EURO-CORDEX）集合中确定了ecotron站点表现最好的区域气候模式模拟：(i)与附近气象站的观测相比，技能最高；（ii）在未来预估中多模式平均值的代表性。随后，根据驱动全球气候模式的全球平均气温，从每个生态单元的模式投影中选择时间窗口。ecotron单元是由全球平均气温超过预定值的5年期间的预估3小时输出强迫的。通过这种新方法，Ecotron设施能够评估生态系统对气候条件变化的响应，同时考虑到气候变量之间的共同变化及其在变率中的预测，很好地代表了可能的复合事件。所提出的方法也可以应用于其他操纵实验，旨在调查生态系统对未来现实气候变化的反应。
Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change.
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Kreyling, Juergen;Schweiger, Andreas H.;Larsen, Klaus Steenberg
通讯作者：
Larsen, Klaus Steenberg
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Sillmann, J.;Kharin, V. V.;Bronaugh, D.
通讯作者：
Bronaugh, D.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Kotlarski, S.;Keuler, K.;Wulfmeyer, V.
通讯作者：
Wulfmeyer, V.