Fatality assessment and variant risk monitoring for COVID-19 using three new hospital occupancy related metrics.
Fatality assessment and variant risk monitoring for COVID-19 using three new hospital occupancy related metrics.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ebiom.2022.104225
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发表时间：
2022-09
期刊：
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Zack, Donald J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang, Ping -Wu;Zhang, Steven H.;Li, Wei-Feng;Keuthan, Casey J.;Li, Shuaizhang;Takaesu, Felipe;Berlinicke, Cynthia A.;Wan, Jun;Sun, Jing;Zack, Donald J.
关键词：
尽管病死率（CFR）被广泛用于反映COVID-19致死风险，但其使用受到时间和空间变化的限制。医院死亡率（HMR）也用于评估COVID-19的严重程度，但HMR数据在全球范围内无法直接获得。COVID-19严重程度和死亡率评估需要替代指标。我们引入了新的衡量COVID-19死亡风险的指标，以及一个新的数学模型来估计死亡和出院的平均住院时间。我们的分析使用了多个数据源。我们提出了三个新的指标：住院死亡率（HOMR），总死亡人数与住院人数之比（TDHOR）和住院人数与病例之比（HOCR），用于动态评估COVID-19死亡风险。2020年8月7日至2021年3月1日期间，美国34个州501，079名COVID-19住院患者的估计Ldead和Ldis分别为18·2（95%CI：17·9-18·5）和14·0（95%CI：13·9-14·0）天。我们发现，27个国家在大流行早期观察到的COVID-19 CFR的急剧变化主要是由未确诊病例引起的。与2021年11月第一周相比，截至2022年1月16日，美国Omicron变体（截至2021年12月25日占美国新增病例的58·6%）的周平均HOCR（模拟住院与病例比率）下降65·16%。本文所述的新的可靠测量方法可用于COVID-19死亡风险和变异相关风险监测。本研究没有具体的资助。
Though case fatality rate (CFR) is widely used to reflect COVID-19 fatality risk, its use is limited by large temporal and spatial variation. Hospital mortality rate (HMR) is also used to assess the severity of COVID-19, but HMR data is not directly available globally. Alternative metrics are needed for COVID-19 severity and fatality assessment. We introduce new metrics for COVID-19 fatality risk measurements/monitoring and a new mathematical model to estimate average hospital length of stay for deaths (Ldead) and discharges (Ldis). Multiple data sources were used for our analyses. We propose three, new metrics: hospital occupancy mortality rate (HOMR), ratio of total deaths to hospital occupancy (TDHOR), and ratio of hospital occupancy to cases (HOCR), for dynamic assessment of COVID-19 fatality risk. Estimated Ldead and Ldis for 501,079 COVID-19 hospitalizations in 34 US states between 7 August 2020 and 1 March 2021 were 18·2(95%CI:17·9-18·5) and 14·0(95%CI:13·9-14·0) days, respectively. We found the dramatic changes in COVID-19 CFR observed in 27 countries during early stages of the pandemic were mostly caused by undiagnosed cases. Compared to the first week of November 2021, the week mean HOCRs (mimics hospitalization-to-case ratio) for Omicron variant (58·6% of US new cases as of 25 December 2021) decreased 65·16% in the US as of 16 January 2022. The new and reliable measurements described here could be useful for COVID-19 fatality risk and variant-associated risk monitoring. No specific funding was associated with the present study.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.n1135
发表时间：
2021-05-24
期刊：
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bodilsen J;Nielsen PB;Søgaard M;Dalager-Pedersen M;Speiser LOZ;Yndigegn T;Nielsen H;Larsen TB;Skjøth F
通讯作者：
Skjøth F
影响因子：
64.5
作者：
Grubaugh ND;Hodcroft EB;Fauver JR;Phelan AL;Cevik M
通讯作者：
Cevik M
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Wang, Huan;Liu, Qian;Xu, Shu-yun
通讯作者：
Xu, Shu-yun
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Block, Brian L.;Martin, Thomas M.;Smith, Alexander K.
通讯作者：
Smith, Alexander K.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Pouw N;van de Maat J;Veerman K;Ten Oever J;Janssen N;Abbink E;Reijers M;de Mast Q;Hoefsloot W;van Crevel R;Slieker K;van Apeldoorn M;Blaauw M;Dofferhoff A;Hoogerwerf J
通讯作者：
Hoogerwerf J