Delineating COVID-19 subgroups using routine clinical data identifies distinct in-hospital outcomes.

Delineating COVID-19 subgroups using routine clinical data identifies distinct in-hospital outcomes.
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DOI:
10.1038/s41598-023-32469-9
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发表时间:
2023-06-20
期刊:
影响因子:
4.6
通讯作者:
Jacob, Joseph
Jacob, Joseph
中科院分区:
综合性期刊3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Rangelov, Bojidar;Young, Alexandra;Lilaonitkul, Watjana;Aslani, Shahab;Taylor, Paul;Guomundsson, Eyjolfur;Yang, Qianye;Hu, Yipeng;Hurst, John R.;Hawkes, David J.;Jacob, Joseph

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COVID-19 大流行对全球医疗保健系统构成了巨大挑战。它强调需要强大的预测模型,可以轻松部署该模型来揭示疾病过程中的异质性,帮助决策并确定治疗的优先顺序。我们根据 11 种常见记录的临床指标,采用了无监督数据驱动模型 SuStaIn,用于治疗 COVID-19 等短期传染病。我们使用了国家 COVID-19 胸部影像数据库 (NCCID) 中因 RT-PCR 确诊的 COVID-19 疾病而住院的 1344 名患者,将他们平均分为训练组和独立验证组。我们发现了三种 COVID-19 亚型(一般血流动力学、肾脏和免疫学)并引入了疾病严重程度阶段,当使用 Cox 比例风险模型进行分析时,这两种亚型都可以预测院内死亡或治疗升级的不同风险。还发现了一种低风险的正常亚型。该模型和我们的完整管道可在线获取,并且可以针对未来 COVID-19 或其他传染病的爆发进行调整。
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. It highlighted the need for robust predictive models which can be readily deployed to uncover heterogeneities in disease course, aid decision-making and prioritise treatment. We adapted an unsupervised data-driven model—SuStaIn, to be utilised for short-term infectious disease like COVID-19, based on 11 commonly recorded clinical measures. We used 1344 patients from the National COVID-19 Chest Imaging Database (NCCID), hospitalised for RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 disease, splitting them equally into a training and an independent validation cohort. We discovered three COVID-19 subtypes (General Haemodynamic, Renal and Immunological) and introduced disease severity stages, both of which were predictive of distinct risks of in-hospital mortality or escalation of treatment, when analysed using Cox Proportional Hazards models. A low-risk Normal-appearing subtype was also discovered. The model and our full pipeline are available online and can be adapted for future outbreaks of COVID-19 or other infectious disease.
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