What the COVID-19 school closure left in its wake: Evidence from a regression discontinuity analysis in Japan.

What the COVID-19 school closure left in its wake: Evidence from a regression discontinuity analysis in Japan.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104364
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发表时间:
2021-03
影响因子:
9.8
通讯作者:
Yokoyama I
Yokoyama I
中科院分区:
经济学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Takaku R;Yokoyama I

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为控制COVID-19的传播,日本中央政府于2020年3月2日突然开始关闭小学,但幼儿园不受此次全国性学校关闭的影响。利用这个自然实验,我们研究了小学的主动关闭如何影响与儿童和家庭福祉相关的各种结果。为了确定学校关闭的因果关系,我们利用了在一定年龄阈值的上学的概率在几个月内的不连续性,并进行模糊回归不连续性分析。这些数据来自于一项大规模的在线调查,调查对象是头胎孩子年龄在4到10岁之间的母亲。结果显示,孩子们的体重大幅增加,母亲们对如何抚养孩子感到焦虑。在与婚姻关系有关的结果方面,如家庭暴力的发生率和婚姻质量,我们没有发现统计上的显著变化。这些发现共同表明,学校关闭可能会对儿童的非学业成果产生巨大的意外有害影响。
To control the spread of COVID-19, the national government of Japan abruptly started the closure of elementary schools on March 2, 2020, but preschools were exempted from this nationwide school closure. Taking advantage of this natural experiment, we examined how the proactive closure of elementary schools affected various outcomes related to children and family well-being. To identify the causal effects of the school closure, we exploited the discontinuity in the probability of going to school at a certain threshold of age in months and conducted fuzzy regression discontinuity analyses. The data are from a large-scale online survey of mothers whose firstborn children were aged 4 to 10 years. The results revealed a large increase in children’s weight and in mothers’ anxiety over how to raise their children. On the outcomes related to marital relationships, such as the incidence of domestic violence and the quality of marriage, we did not find statistically significant changes. These findings together suggest that school closures could have large unintended detrimental effects on non-academic outcomes among children.
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