Exploring the Immediate Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: an Empirical Analysis of the Short-Term Aftermath in Los Angeles.
Exploring the Immediate Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: an Empirical Analysis of the Short-Term Aftermath in Los Angeles.
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DOI：
10.1007/s12103-020-09578-6
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Favarin S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Campedelli GM;Aziani A;Favarin S
这项工作调查了COVID-19遏制政策是否以及如何对洛杉矶的犯罪趋势产生了直接影响。该分析使用贝叶斯结构时间序列进行，重点关注九种犯罪类别和总体犯罪数量，从2017年1月1日至2020年3月28日每日监测。我们集中在两个干预后时间窗口--2020年3月4日至3月16日和3月4日至3月28日--动态评估温和和严格政策的短期效果。在洛杉矶，整体犯罪率大幅下降，抢劫、入店行窃、盗窃和殴打也大幅下降。没有发现对车辆盗窃、入室盗窃、使用致命武器袭击、亲密伴侣袭击和杀人的重大影响。结果表明，在干预措施实施后的第一周，社会距离对工具性犯罪和不太严重的犯罪产生更直接的影响。政策影响也进行了讨论。本文的在线版本（10.1007/s12103-020-09578-6）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
This work investigates whether and how COVID-19 containment policies had an immediate impact on crime trends in Los Angeles. The analysis is conducted using Bayesian structural time-series and focuses on nine crime categories and on the overall crime count, daily monitored from January 1st 2017 to March 28th 2020. We concentrate on two post-intervention time windows—from March 4th to March 16th and from March 4th to March 28th 2020—to dynamically assess the short-term effects of mild and strict policies. In Los Angeles, overall crime has significantly decreased, as well as robbery, shoplifting, theft, and battery. No significant effect has been detected for vehicle theft, burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, intimate partner assault, and homicide. Results suggest that, in the first weeks after the interventions are put in place, social distancing impacts more directly on instrumental and less serious crimes. Policy implications are also discussed. The online version of this article (10.1007/s12103-020-09578-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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