Development and appraisal of long-term adaptation pathways for managing heat-risk in London
Development and appraisal of long-term adaptation pathways for managing heat-risk in London
复制标题
伦敦热风险管理长期适应途径的开发和评估
DOI：
10.1016/j.crm.2017.01.001
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Kingsborough A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kingsborough A
由于全球变暖和城市热岛效应的影响，住宅过热和死亡的风险正在增加，需要通过气候变化适应来解决。 “适应路径”已被广泛认为是一种适应规划方法，但尚未用于城市规模的城市热风险管理的长期规划。本文将适应路径方法应用于城市热风险管理。我们使用空间相干的缩小尺度的概率气候变化预测来解释城市土地覆盖和城市热岛的变化，以评估适应路径并为长期适应规划提供信息。我们证明，基于当前最佳实践的仅关注城市绿化或建筑层面适应的适应策略不太可能应对不断增加的风险水平。空调在管理高温风险方面可能发挥越来越重要的作用；然而，增加空调会加剧城市热岛效应，进一步增加过热风险。
The risk of residential overheating and mortality is increasing due to the effects of global warming and the urban heat island effect and needs to be addressed through climate change adaptation. ‘Adaptation pathways’ have become widely recognised as an adaptation planning approach, but they have not been utilised for long-term planning for city-scale urban heat risk management. This paper applies adaptation pathway methodology to urban heat risk management. We use spatially coherent downscaled probabilistic climate change projections that account for changes in urban-land cover and the urban heat island to appraise adaptation pathways and inform long-term adaptation planning. We demonstrate that adaptation strategies focusing solely on urban greening or building level adaptation based on current best practice are unlikely to cope with the increasing levels of risk. Air-conditioning may play a growing role in managing heat-risk; however, increasing air-conditioning will exacerbate the urban heat island and further increase the risks of overheating.
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DOI：
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