Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 using LSTM network.
Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 using LSTM network.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12859-021-04224-2
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发表时间：
2021-06-10
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Sharma A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kumar S;Sharma R;Tsunoda T;Kumarevel T;Sharma A
新型冠状病毒(新冠肺炎)是由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型引起的，几个月内，它已成为一场全球大流行。这迫使许多受影响的国家采取了严格的措施，如完全封锁、关闭企业和贸易以及旅行限制，这产生了巨大的经济影响。因此，对一个国家如何能够遏制新冠肺炎的传播拥有知识和远见，对于政府、政策制定者、商业合作伙伴和企业家来说将是至关重要的。为了帮助社会和行政决策，需要一个能够预测一个国家何时能够遏制新冠肺炎传播的模型。使用我们的长期短期记忆(LSTM)网络模型获得的结果很有希望，因为我们使用新西兰的数据验证了我们的预测模型，因为他们已经能够控制新冠肺炎的传播，并将每天的新增病例记录减少到零。我们提出的预测模型能够正确预测新西兰能够遏制新冠肺炎传播的日期。同样，拟议的模型也被用来预测其他国家能够遏制新冠肺炎传播的日期。预测的日期只是根据现有情况进行的预测。然而，这些预测的日期可以用来指导行动和做出明智的决定，这些决定将对实际的未来产生实际的影响。目前的预测趋势显示，需要对大多数国家实施更严格的行动/限制，因为预测模型显示，它们需要超过3个月的时间才可能遏制新冠肺炎的传播。网上版载有补充材料，可在10.1186/s12859-021-04224-2查阅。
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and within a few months, it has become a global pandemic. This forced many affected countries to take stringent measures such as complete lockdown, shutting down businesses and trade, as well as travel restrictions, which has had a tremendous economic impact. Therefore, having knowledge and foresight about how a country might be able to contain the spread of COVID-19 will be of paramount importance to the government, policy makers, business partners and entrepreneurs. To help social and administrative decision making, a model that will be able to forecast when a country might be able to contain the spread of COVID-19 is needed. The results obtained using our long short-term memory (LSTM) network-based model are promising as we validate our prediction model using New Zealand’s data since they have been able to contain the spread of COVID-19 and bring the daily new cases tally to zero. Our proposed forecasting model was able to correctly predict the dates within which New Zealand was able to contain the spread of COVID-19. Similarly, the proposed model has been used to forecast the dates when other countries would be able to contain the spread of COVID-19. The forecasted dates are only a prediction based on the existing situation. However, these forecasted dates can be used to guide actions and make informed decisions that will be practically beneficial in influencing the real future. The current forecasting trend shows that more stringent actions/restrictions need to be implemented for most of the countries as the forecasting model shows they will take over three months before they can possibly contain the spread of COVID-19. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12859-021-04224-2.
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