Present and potential future distribution of common vampire bats in the Americas and the associated risk to cattle.
Present and potential future distribution of common vampire bats in the Americas and the associated risk to cattle.
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目前和潜在的吸血鬼蝙蝠在美洲的分布以及牛的相关风险。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0042466
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Van den Bussche RA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lee DN;Papeş M;Van den Bussche RA
拉丁美洲养牛业的成功受到普通吸血蝙蝠Desmodus rotundus的阻碍，其原因是产奶量和质量增加减少，继发感染和狂犬病的风险增加。利用生态位模型预测了当前D.根据政府间气候变化专门委员会提出的A2、A1 B和B1气候情景，计算了2030年、2050年和2080年的圆齿龙和该物种的未来分布。然后，我们结合目前的潜在分布与牛密度估计，以确定牛的负面影响，由于D的风险较高的地区。圆的我们通过绘制17起记录在案的牛狂犬病爆发来评估我们的风险预测。结果表明，该虫适宜的生境是D.圆齿龙分布于墨西哥和中美洲的大部分地区，以及委内瑞拉、圭亚那、巴西高地、厄瓜多尔西部、阿根廷北方和秘鲁、玻利维亚和巴拉圭的安第斯山脉东部的部分地区。根据未来气候预测，D.在这些相同的地区和法属圭亚那，苏里南，委内瑞拉和哥伦比亚的其他地区预测rotundus;由于“温度季节性”不足，圆齿鱼不太可能扩展到美国。大部分牛处于危险中的地区包括墨西哥，中美洲，巴拉圭和巴西。17个记录在案的牛狂犬病暴发中有12个发生在预测有风险的地区。我们现在和未来的预测可以帮助当局集中狂犬病预防工作，并告知养牛场主哪些地区的牛狂犬病风险增加，因为它有适合D的栖息地。圆的
Success of the cattle industry in Latin America is impeded by the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, through decreases in milk production and mass gain and increased risk of secondary infection and rabies. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the current potential distribution of D. rotundus and the future distribution of the species for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080 based on the A2, A1B, and B1 climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We then combined the present day potential distribution with cattle density estimates to identify areas where cattle are at higher risk for the negative impacts due to D. rotundus. We evaluated our risk prediction by plotting 17 documented outbreaks of cattle rabies. Our results indicated highly suitable habitat for D. rotundus occurs throughout most of Mexico and Central America as well as portions of Venezuela, Guyana, the Brazilian highlands, western Ecuador, northern Argentina, and east of the Andes in Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. With future climate projections suitable habitat for D. rotundus is predicted in these same areas and additional areas in French Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela and Columbia; however D. rotundus are not likely to expand into the U.S. because of inadequate ‘temperature seasonality.’ Areas with large portions of cattle at risk include Mexico, Central America, Paraguay, and Brazil. Twelve of 17 documented cattle rabies outbreaks were represented in regions predicted at risk. Our present day and future predictions can help authorities focus rabies prevention efforts and inform cattle ranchers which areas are at an increased risk of cattle rabies because it has suitable habitat for D. rotundus.
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影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Gomes, Murilo Novaes;Vieira Monteiro, Antonio Miguel;Nogueira Filho, Vladimir de Souza
通讯作者：
Nogueira Filho, Vladimir de Souza
影响因子：
5
作者：
Almeida, MF;Martorelli, LFA;Massad, E
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Massad, E
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作者：
Belotto, A;Leanes, LF;Correa, E
通讯作者：
Correa, E
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通讯作者：
Machado, Ricardo B.
影响因子：
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作者：
Elith, Jane;Phillips, Steven J.;Yates, Colin J.
通讯作者：
Yates, Colin J.