The impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants.
The impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants.
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交叉反应免疫对SARS-COV-2变体出现的影响。
DOI：
10.3389/fimmu.2022.1049458
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
7.3
通讯作者：
Obolski, Uri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thompson, Robin N.;Southall, Emma;Daon, Yair;Lovell-Read, Francesca A.;Iwami, Shingo;Thompson, Craig P.;Obolski, Uri
关键词：
COVID-19大流行的一个关键特征是出现了具有不同传播特征的SARS-CoV-2变体。然而，当一种新的变异到达宿主群体时，它不一定会导致许多病例。相反，由于随机效应和人群的免疫水平，它可能会逐渐消失。对新型SARS-CoV-2变异体的免疫力可能受到先前暴露于相关病毒（如其他SARS-CoV-2变异体和季节性冠状病毒）以及这些暴露所赋予的交叉反应免疫力水平的影响。在这里，我们研究了交叉反应性免疫对SARS-CoV-2变异体出现的影响，在一个简化的场景中，一种新的SARS-CoV-2变异体是在抗原相关的病毒在人群中传播后引入的。我们使用数学模型来探索新变种入侵人群并导致大量病例的风险，而不是在少数病例下逐渐消失。我们发现，如果交叉反应性免疫是完全的（即被以前传播的病毒感染的人对新变体不敏感），新变体必须比以前的病毒更具传播性才能入侵人群。然而，在一个更现实的情况下，交叉反应性免疫是部分的，我们表明，它是可能的新变种入侵，即使他们比以前流行的病毒传播。这是因为与完全交叉反应性免疫相比，部分交叉反应性免疫有效地增加了新变体可用的易感宿主的库。此外，如果抗原相关病毒的先前感染有助于建立新变体的感染，如一些实验研究所提出的，那么即使是具有非常有限的传播性的变体也能够侵入宿主群体。我们的研究结果强调，快速评估相关病毒对新型SARS-CoV-2变体的交叉反应免疫水平是新型变体风险评估的重要组成部分。
A key feature of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with different transmission characteristics. However, when a novel variant arrives in a host population, it will not necessarily lead to many cases. Instead, it may fade out, due to stochastic effects and the level of immunity in the population. Immunity against novel SARS-CoV-2 variants may be influenced by prior exposures to related viruses, such as other SARS-CoV-2 variants and seasonal coronaviruses, and the level of cross-reactive immunity conferred by those exposures. Here, we investigate the impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants in a simplified scenario in which a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant is introduced after an antigenically related virus has spread in the population. We use mathematical modelling to explore the risk that the novel variant invades the population and causes a large number of cases, as opposed to fading out with few cases. We find that, if cross-reactive immunity is complete (i.e. someone infected by the previously circulating virus is not susceptible to the novel variant), the novel variant must be more transmissible than the previous virus to invade the population. However, in a more realistic scenario in which cross-reactive immunity is partial, we show that it is possible for novel variants to invade, even if they are less transmissible than previously circulating viruses. This is because partial cross-reactive immunity effectively increases the pool of susceptible hosts that are available to the novel variant compared to complete cross-reactive immunity. Furthermore, if previous infection with the antigenically related virus assists the establishment of infection with the novel variant, as has been proposed following some experimental studies, then even variants with very limited transmissibility are able to invade the host population. Our results highlight that fast assessment of the level of cross-reactive immunity conferred by related viruses against novel SARS-CoV-2 variants is an essential component of novel variant risk assessments.
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影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Chabas H;Lion S;Nicot A;Meaden S;van Houte S;Moineau S;Wahl LM;Westra ER;Gandon S
通讯作者：
Gandon S
SARS-COV-2血统的估计可传播和影响B.1.1.7在英国。
DOI：
10.1126/science.abg3055
发表时间：
2021-04-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Davies NG;Abbott S;Barnard RC;Jarvis CI;Kucharski AJ;Munday JD;Pearson CAB;Russell TW;Tully DC;Washburne AD;Wenseleers T;Gimma A;Waites W;Wong KLM;van Zandvoort K;Silverman JD;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium;Diaz-Ordaz K;Keogh R;Eggo RM;Funk S;Jit M;Atkins KE;Edmunds WJ
通讯作者：
Edmunds WJ
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Britton, Tom;Ball, Frank;Trapman, Pieter
通讯作者：
Trapman, Pieter
影响因子：
32.4
作者：
DeWolf, Susan;Laracy, Justin C.;Perales, Miguel-Angel;Kamboj, Mini;van den Brink, Marcel R. M.;Vardhana, Santosha
通讯作者：
Vardhana, Santosha
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Dyson L;Hill EM;Moore S;Curran-Sebastian J;Tildesley MJ;Lythgoe KA;House T;Pellis L;Keeling MJ
通讯作者：
Keeling MJ