Estimating under-recognized COVID-19 deaths, United States, march 2020-may 2021 using an excess mortality modelling approach.
Estimating under-recognized COVID-19 deaths, United States, march 2020-may 2021 using an excess mortality modelling approach.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.lana.2021.100019
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发表时间：
2021-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Reed C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iuliano AD;Chang HH;Patel NN;Threlkel R;Kniss K;Reich J;Steele M;Hall AJ;Fry AM;Reed C
在美国，2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）死亡病例通过国家法定报告疾病监测系统（National Informable Disease Surveillance System，NVSS）获取，并向国家生命统计系统（National Vital Statistics System，NVSS）报告死亡证明。然而，并非所有COVID-19死亡病例都得到确认和报告，原因是检测的局限性、列为死因的慢性健康状况恶化或报告延迟。估计死亡人数可以更全面地了解COVID-19导致的总死亡人数。我们使用线性时间序列回归模型，估计了2020年3月至2021年4月期间50个州、纽约市和哥伦比亚特区按周和六个年龄组（0-17岁、18-49岁、50-64岁、65-74岁、75-84岁和≥85岁）报告给NVSS的全因死亡人数。在应用模型之前，报告的COVID-19死亡人数从全因死亡中减去。假设没有SARS-CoV-2循环，每周预期死亡和使用SARS-CoV-2每周阳性百分比作为协变量的预测全因死亡按年龄组建模，并将州作为随机截距。通过从预测死亡人数中减去预期全因死亡人数，计算每个州和年龄组的COVID-19可归因的未识别死亡人数。我们估计，2020年3月8日至2021年5月29日，美国发生了766，611例因COVID-19死亡的事件。其中，184，477例（24%）死亡没有在死亡证明上记录。82%的未被确认的死亡发生在65岁以上的人群中; 0-17岁人群中未被确认的死亡比例比所有其他年龄组低0.24 - 0.31倍。在大流行的最初几个月（2020年3月至5月）和SARS-CoV-2活动增加期间（2020年7月，2020年11月至2021年2月），没有记录更多的COVID-19导致的死亡。估计COVID-19可归因的未确认死亡可更好地了解COVID-19死亡负担，并可更好地量化COVID-19大流行的严重程度。没有一
In the United States, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths are captured through the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System and death certificates reported to the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). However, not all COVID-19 deaths are recognized and reported because of limitations in testing, exacerbation of chronic health conditions that are listed as the cause of death, or delays in reporting. Estimating deaths may provide a more comprehensive understanding of total COVID-19–attributable deaths. We estimated COVID-19 unrecognized attributable deaths, from March 2020—April 2021, using all-cause deaths reported to NVSS by week and six age groups (0–17, 18–49, 50–64, 65–74, 75–84, and ≥85 years) for 50 states, New York City, and the District of Columbia using a linear time series regression model. Reported COVID-19 deaths were subtracted from all-cause deaths before applying the model. Weekly expected deaths, assuming no SARS-CoV-2 circulation and predicted all-cause deaths using SARS-CoV-2 weekly percent positive as a covariate were modelled by age group and including state as a random intercept. COVID-19–attributable unrecognized deaths were calculated for each state and age group by subtracting the expected all-cause deaths from the predicted deaths. We estimated that 766,611 deaths attributable to COVID-19 occurred in the United States from March 8, 2020—May 29, 2021. Of these, 184,477 (24%) deaths were not documented on death certificates. Eighty-two percent of unrecognized deaths were among persons aged ≥65 years; the proportion of unrecognized deaths were 0•24–0•31 times lower among those 0–17 years relative to all other age groups. More COVID-19–attributable deaths were not captured during the early months of the pandemic (March–May 2020) and during increases in SARS-CoV-2 activity (July 2020, November 2020—February 2021). Estimating COVID-19–attributable unrecognized deaths provides a better understanding of the COVID-19 mortality burden and may better quantify the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. None
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影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Krantz, Steven G.;Rao, Arni S. R. Srinivasa
通讯作者：
Rao, Arni S. R. Srinivasa
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Arevalo-Rodriguez I;Buitrago-Garcia D;Simancas-Racines D;Zambrano-Achig P;Del Campo R;Ciapponi A;Sued O;Martinez-García L;Rutjes AW;Low N;Bossuyt PM;Perez-Molina JA;Zamora J
通讯作者：
Zamora J
DOI：
10.1001/jama.2020.6775
发表时间：
2020-01-01
期刊：
JAMA, Journal of the American Medical Association
影响因子：
--
作者：
Richardson, Safiya;Hirsch, Jamie S.;,
通讯作者：
,
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Blangiardo M;Cameletti M;Pirani M;Corsetti G;Battaglini M;Baio G
通讯作者：
Baio G
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Modig K;Ahlbom A;Ebeling M
通讯作者：
Ebeling M