Assessment of droughts and wheat yield loss on the North China Plain with an aggregate drought index (ADI) approach
Assessment of droughts and wheat yield loss on the North China Plain with an aggregate drought index (ADI) approach
复制标题
利用综合干旱指数（ADI）法评估华北平原干旱和小麦产量损失
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.12.047
复制
发表时间：
2018-04
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Zhengjia Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sisi Wang;Xingguo Mo;Shi Hu;Suxia Liu;Zhengjia Liu
频繁的干旱事件正在威胁区域/全球粮食安全。然而，目前预测作物遭受干旱威胁的产量损失的模型仍然有限。利用7个干旱指数构建了综合干旱指数，以定量研究华北平原干旱对作物产量的影响。利用时间序列和面板回归模型，研究了冬小麦气候产量距平（ΔY）与冬小麦播前和生育期ADI值的关系。结果表明，ADI综合了干旱指数的优点，能够合理地描述干旱事件的范围、严重程度和持续时间。在研究期间，年ADI的变化趋势在生长阶段表现出显著的空间异质性。在第一阶段（去年7 ~ 9月），大部分地区的日容许摄入量（ADI）都在0.005/年以上。第4阶段（灌浆至成熟），北方和南方的NCP分别有增加和减少的趋势。基于面板模型，在高灌溉条件下，4个阶段的ADI可以预测ΔY的20%左右的变化。同时，在灌溉供应量较低的NCP东部，ΔY的变化可能超过40%。该研究强调了干旱信息和灌溉信息相结合对冬小麦产量变化评估的重要性。
Frequent drought events are threatening regional/global food security. However, current models for predicting crop yield loss suffered from drought threat is still limited. In this study, seven drought indices were employed to develop an aggregate drought index (ADI) to quantify the drought effect on crop yield in the North China Plain (NCP). Based on time-series and panel regression models, relationships between climatic yield anomalies of winter wheat (ΔY) and ADI values before sowing of winter wheat and during its growth were investigated. Results showed that ADI assembled the advantages of drought indices and reasonably described the range, severity and duration of drought events. During the study period, trends of annual ADI displayed remarkable spatial heterogeneity in the growth stages. Increasing trends of ADI over 0.005/year were found in most areas of NCP at STAGE 1 (from July to September in last year). At STAGE 4 (from grain-filling to maturation), increasing and decreasing trends were observed in northern and southern NCP, respectively. Based on panel model, ADI in the four stages could predict about 20% variations of ΔY in areas with high irrigation supplies. Meanwhile, more than 40% variations of ΔY may be predicted in eastern NCP with low irrigation supplies. The study highlights the importance of integrating drought information and irrigation for assessment of winter wheat yield variations.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
6.9
作者：
Jie Zhang;Q. Mu;Jianxi Huang
通讯作者：
Jie Zhang;Q. Mu;Jianxi Huang
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Q. Mu;Maosheng Zhao;J. Kimball
通讯作者：
Q. Mu;Maosheng Zhao;J. Kimball
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Jain, Vinit K.;Pandey, R. P.;Jain, Manoj K.
通讯作者：
Jain, Manoj K.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
T. Mckee;N. Doesken;J. Kleist
通讯作者：
T. Mckee;N. Doesken;J. Kleist
影响因子：
8
作者：
C. Mass;David Ovens;Kenneth J. Westrick;B. Colle
通讯作者：
C. Mass;David Ovens;Kenneth J. Westrick;B. Colle