Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys.
Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009436
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发表时间：
2021-09
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Aguas R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen S;Flegg JA;White LJ;Aguas R
对先前人群暴露的准确了解对于未来SARS-CoV-2流行波的准备计划和疫苗优先战略具有重要影响。血清学研究可用于估计过去的接触水平，从而确定人口在其流行时间轴中的位置。为了避免抗体滴度随时间衰减而引入的偏倚，估计人群暴露的方法应考虑血清逆转，以反映血清阳性率测量值随时间的变化是由于最近传播而增加和由于抗体减弱而减少的净效应。在这里，我们提出了一种新的方法，结合多个数据集（血清学，死亡率和病毒阳性率）估计血清逆转时间和感染病死率（IFR），同时推断人口暴露水平。结果表明，血清逆转的平均时间约为6个月，IFR为0.54%至1.3%，真实暴露可能是目前英国几个地区报告的血清阳性率水平的两倍以上。确定先前暴露于SARS-CoV-2的人口的真实比例尤其具有挑战性。测量有多少人有抗病毒抗体的血清学调查是一个有前途的工具，但需要仔细解释这些研究的结果。几项研究跟踪了一段时间后，他们已经有一个已知的感染，能够确定抗体只能测量长达6-9个月，平均。直接的影响是，血清学研究将不可避免地低估受影响的人数，因为有些人在进行研究时抗体计数较低，检测结果为阴性。我们提出了一种方法，考虑到这一点，并通知三角血清学数据与死亡率和测试阳性数据的真实水平的暴露。
Accurate knowledge of prior population exposure has critical ramifications for preparedness plans for future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves and vaccine prioritization strategies. Serological studies can be used to estimate levels of past exposure and thus position populations in their epidemic timeline. To circumvent biases introduced by the decay in antibody titers over time, methods for estimating population exposure should account for seroreversion, to reflect that changes in seroprevalence measures over time are the net effect of increases due to recent transmission and decreases due to antibody waning. Here, we present a new method that combines multiple datasets (serology, mortality, and virus positivity ratios) to estimate seroreversion time and infection fatality ratios (IFR) and simultaneously infer population exposure levels. The results indicate that the average time to seroreversion is around six months, IFR is 0.54% to 1.3%, and true exposure may be more than double the current seroprevalence levels reported for several regions of England. It is particularly challenging to determine the true proportion of the population that has been previously exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Serological surveys that measure how many people have antibodies against the virus are a promising tool but results from such studies need to be interpreted carefully. Several studies following individuals over time after they’ve had a known infection were able to determine that antibodies are only measurable up to 6–9 months, on average. The immediate implication is that serological studies will inevitably under-estimate the number of people exposed, since some will have a lower antibody count when the study is conducted and test negative. We propose a method that takes this into account and informs the true level of exposure from triangulating serological data with mortality and test positivity data.
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DOI：
10.1093/cid/ciab172
发表时间：
2021-12-16
期刊：
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
影响因子：
--
作者：
den Hartog G;Vos ERA;van den Hoogen LL;van Boven M;Schepp RM;Smits G;van Vliet J;Woudstra L;Wijmenga-Monsuur AJ;van Hagen CCE;Sanders EAM;de Melker HE;van der Klis FRM;van Binnendijk RS
通讯作者：
van Binnendijk RS
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30943-9
发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Duysburgh E;Mortgat L;Barbezange C;Dierick K;Fischer N;Heyndrickx L;Hutse V;Thomas I;Van Gucht S;Vuylsteke B;Ariën KK;Desombere I
通讯作者：
Desombere I
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
Long, Quan-Xin;Liu, Bai-Zhong;Huang, Ai-Long
通讯作者：
Huang, Ai-Long
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.1464
发表时间：
2020-12
期刊：
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Meyerowitz-Katz G;Merone L
通讯作者：
Merone L
DOI：
10.1016/s2666-5247(21)00025-2
发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
The Lancet. Microbe
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chia WN;Zhu F;Ong SWX;Young BE;Fong SW;Le Bert N;Tan CW;Tiu C;Zhang J;Tan SY;Pada S;Chan YH;Tham CYL;Kunasegaran K;Chen MI;Low JGH;Leo YS;Renia L;Bertoletti A;Ng LFP;Lye DC;Wang LF
通讯作者：
Wang LF