Observational constraints on the causes of Holocene CO2 change
Observational constraints on the causes of Holocene CO2 change
复制标题
全新世CO2变化原因的观测限制
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Lenton
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Goodwin;K. Oliver;T. Lenton
控制过去大气CO2水平的机制无法直接测量，因此在重建过去的碳循环时，许多代理数据源被结合起来。通过寻求基于数据的观测值与其数值模拟对应物之间的一致性来检查全新世建模重建的准确性。提出了一个新的框架，以评估哪些组合的观测量可以最好地约束碳循环机制的不确定性最小。我们发现，当以前的研究结合海洋温度，海洋[CO32−]和大气CO2的δ 13 C作为可观测量时，在重建CO2增加的机制时，数据源的不确定性被放大了2个数量级以上。然而，将8000年前海洋DIC的平均δ 13 C作为一个额外的数据源，将不确定性降低了5倍以上，使这一可观察性成为未来研究的优先事项。我们的分析表明，8000年BP和工业化前之间的二氧化碳增加20 ppm是由显着的CaCO3沉淀和减少海洋软组织泵。与此同时，陆地碳储量的增加与CO2的增加相反。这里介绍的方法是有用的调查范围内的古气候事件。
The mechanisms that controlled past atmospheric CO2 levels are not directly measurable, hence many proxy data sources are combined when reconstructing past carbon cycling. The accuracy of Holocene modeling reconstructions is checked by seeking consistency between data‐based observables and their numerically simulated counterparts. A new framework is presented to evaluate which combinations of observables can best constrain carbon cycle mechanisms with the minimum of uncertainty. We show that when previous studies have combined ocean temperatures, ocean [CO32−], and the δ13C of atmospheric CO2 as observables, uncertainties in the data sources are amplified by over 2 orders of magnitude when reconstructing the mechanisms responsible for CO2 increase. However, incorporating mean δ13C of ocean DIC since 8000 years ago as an additional data source reduces the uncertainties by more than a factor of 5, making this observable a priority for future research. Our analysis indicates that the 20 ppm increase in CO2 between 8000 years BP and preindustrial was caused by significant CaCO3 precipitation and a reduction in the ocean soft tissue pump. Meanwhile, an increase in terrestrial carbon storage opposed the CO2 increase. The methods presented here are useful for investigating a range of paleoclimate events.
影响因子：
18.3
作者：
P. Goodwin;Richard G. Williams;A. Ridgwell;M. Follows
通讯作者：
P. Goodwin;Richard G. Williams;A. Ridgwell;M. Follows
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
P. Goodwin;M. Follows;Richard G. Williams
通讯作者：
P. Goodwin;M. Follows;Richard G. Williams