Nonlinear effects of phenological shifts link interannual variation to species interactions
Nonlinear effects of phenological shifts link interannual variation to species interactions
复制标题
物候变化的非线性效应将年际变化与物种相互作用联系起来
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2656.12850
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Bassar, ed., Ron
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rudolf, Volker H.;Bassar, ed., Ron
绝大多数物种的相互作用是季节性的，并取决于物种的相对物候。然而，在这方面，物种物候的差异自然会随年份而变化，并因全球持续的气候变化而改变。通过将两种竞争性蝌蚪物种的相对孵化跨越生产力梯度的实验与到达时间的年际变化的模拟相结合，我测试了跨年份的物候变化如何改变种间竞争的强度和结果。（物候）的物种从根本上改变了种间竞争，改变时间对竞争的影响是高度非线性的大多数人口统计率。此外，这种关系随着系统的生产力而变化。因此，（a）物候相对时间的变化具有或大或小的影响，这取决于相互作用的平均自然时间，（B）即使在多年平均物候（时间）保持不变的情况下，相互作用开始的年际变化也会改变模拟中的物种相互作用。但这些结果表明，我们还需要考虑相互作用物种物候的年际变化，以预测自然群落的动态以及它们将如何受到气候变化的影响。
The vast majority of species interactions are seasonally structured and depend on species' relative phenologies. However, differences in the phenologies of species naturally vary across years and are altered by ongoing climate change around the world.By combining experiments that shifted the relative hatching of two competing tadpole species across a productivity gradient with simulations of inter‐annual variation in arrival times I tested how phenological variation across years can alter the strength and outcome of interspecific competition.Shifting the relative timing of hatching (phenology) of a species fundamentally altered interspecific competition, and the effect of shifting the timing on competition was highly non‐linear for most demographic rates. Furthemore, this relationship varied with productivity of the system. As a consequence, (a) shifts in relative timing of phenologies had small or large effects depending on the average natural timing of interactions, and (b) changes in the inter‐annual variation in onset of interaction alone can alter species interactions in simulations even when mean phenologies (timing) remain unchanged across years.Studies on phenologies traditionally focus on directional shifts in the mean of phenologies, but these results suggest that we also need to consider inter‐annual variation in phenologies of interacting species to predict dynamics of natural communities and how they will be modified by climate change.
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