Changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest
Changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest
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美国中西部月度基流变化
DOI：
10.1002/hyp.13359
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Schilling, Keith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ayers, Jessica R.;Villarini, Gabriele;Jones, Christopher;Schilling, Keith
描述美国中西部农业区的径流变化对于整个地区水资源的有效规划和管理至关重要。本研究的目的是通过基于长期流量计数据探索水文变化，确定基流在50年研究期间是否以及如何对研究区域的土地变更和气候变化做出反应。本研究评估了1966年至2016年期间美国地质调查局458个流量计在12个不同的中西部州内对年基流沿着的月度贡献以及可能的趋势。它还审查了气候和土地利用因素对观测到的基流趋势的影响。每月的贡献分解显示了大部分基流是如何在春季（3月，4月和5月）排放到溪流中的，并且在整个春季（特别是4月）和夏季（6月，7月和8月）总体上更可观。基流并没有保持恒定的研究期间，从Mann-Kendall检验的趋势检测的结果表明，基流增加，是最强的5月至9月。分位数回归证实了这一分析，表明在一年的大部分时间里，分布的中部变化最大。虽然基流增加的趋势在整个地区普遍存在，但减少的趋势很少，仅限于堪萨斯和内布拉斯加。进一步分析表明，基流变化是由整个区域的气候和土地利用变化驱动的。基流的增加趋势与全年降水量的增加有关，在5月和6月最为突出。农业强度的变化（收获玉米和大豆种植面积）与中部和西部中西部的增加趋势有关，而气温升高可能导致北方威斯康星州、堪萨斯和内布拉斯加州春季和夏季基流趋势减少。
Characterizing streamflow changes in the agricultural U.S. Midwest is critical for effective planning and management of water resources throughout the region. The objective of this study is to determine if and how baseflow has responded to land alteration and climate changes across the study area during the 50‐year study period by exploring hydrologic variations based on long‐term stream gage data. This study evaluates monthly contributions to annual baseflow along with possible trends over the 1966–2016 period for 458 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages within 12 different Midwestern states. It also examines the influence of climate and land use factors on the observed baseflow trends. Monthly contribution breakdowns demonstrate how the majority of baseflow is discharged into streams during the spring months (March, April, and May) and is overall more substantial throughout the spring (especially in April) and summer (June, July, and August). Baseflow has not remained constant over the study period, and the results of the trend detection from the Mann–Kendall test reveal that baseflows have increased and are the strongest from May to September. This analysis is confirmed by quantile regression, which suggests that for most of the year, the largest changes are detected in the central part of the distribution. Although increasing baseflow trends are widespread throughout the region, decreasing trends are few and limited to Kansas and Nebraska. Further analysis reveals that baseflow changes are being driven by both climate and land use change across the region. Increasing trends in baseflow are linked to increases in precipitation throughout the year and are most prominent during May and June. Changes in agricultural intensity (in terms of harvested corn and soybean acreage) are linked to increasing trends in the central and western Midwest, whereas increasing temperatures may lead to decreasing baseflow trends in spring and summer in northern Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nebraska.
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