Can frequent occurrence of Asiatic black bears around residential areas be predicted by a model-based mast production in multiple Fagaceae species?
Can frequent occurrence of Asiatic black bears around residential areas be predicted by a model-based mast production in multiple Fagaceae species?
复制标题
能否通过基于模型的多种壳斗科物种的肥大生产来预测居住区周围亚洲黑熊的频繁出现？
DOI：
10.1080/13416979.2018.1488653
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Fujiki Daisuke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nakamori Satsuki;Ando Masaki;Daiusuke Fujiki;藤木大介;森光由樹・藤木大介・斎田栄里奈;藤木大介・高木俊;Fujiki Daisuke
在日本，有必要开发预测亚洲黑熊（Ursus thibetanus）在居民区附近频繁出现的方法，以防止人熊冲突。以往的研究表明，熊发生的频率每年波动很大，这种年度波动主要与壳斗科树木的肥大生产。本研究以日本西部兵库县12年的监测数据为基础，构建了广义线性模型（GLM），分析了3种优势壳斗科植物（毛毛根山毛榉、皱叶栎和锯齿栎）对秋季熊出没的影响。根据GLM，每个物种对熊出现的影响不同。结果表明，Q. crispula和Q.锯齿熊发生率大于F。钝齿。预测模型的准确性随着模型中包含的壳斗科物种的数量增加而增加。GLM与所有三个壳斗科物种表现出更密切的关系，观察值和预期值熊发生（R2= 0.96）。例如，通过监测比美国西弗吉尼亚州所需的更少的壳斗科物种（在那里占主导地位的三种），可以预测日本西部熊的频繁出现。这项研究表明，未来的研究应该集中在开发一个更可靠的预测模型，使当地社区能够为大规模的熊事件做好准备。
In Japan, there is a need to develop methods for predicting frequent occurrences of Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) around residential areas in order to prevent human–bear conflicts. Previous studies have suggested that the frequency of bear occurrence fluctuates dramatically from year to year and that this annual fluctuation is primarily correlated with mast production in Fagaceae trees. This study analyzed how three dominant Fagaceae species (Fagus crenata, Quercus crispula, andQuercus serrata) affect bear occurrences during autumn, constructing generalized linear models (GLMs) based on monitoring data collected over 12 years in Hyogo Prefecture, western Japan. According to the GLMs, each species affected bear occurrences differently. It is suggested that the effects forQ. crispulaandQ. serrataon bear occurrence are larger than that forF. crenata. The accuracy of the predictive model increased as the number of Fagaceae species included in the model increased. The GLM with all three Fagaceae species showed a much closer relationship between observed values and expected values in bear occurrence (R2= 0.96). Frequent bear occurrences in western Japan can be predicted by monitoring fewer Fagaceae species (the three that are dominant there) than would be required in West Virginia, USA, for example. This study suggests that future research should focus on developing an even more reliable predictive model that would enable local communities to prepare for massive bear occurrences.
登录
查看更多内容
根据日本北陆地区雄花序脱落数预测山毛榉 (Fagus crenata) 播种量：
DOI：
10.4005/jjfs.95.51
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
Journal of The Japanese Forest Society
影响因子：
--
作者：
Haruki Nakajima;J. Kodani
通讯作者：
J. Kodani
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2011-10
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
M. Kéry;M. Schaub
通讯作者：
M. Kéry;M. Schaub
影响因子：
1
作者：
Hashimoto, Yukihiko;Yasutake, Aiko
通讯作者：
Yasutake, Aiko
壳斗科树的橡子作物与熊大规模侵入北陆地区居民区之间的关系
DOI：
10.4005/jjfs.95.76
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
Journal of The Japanese Forest Society
影响因子：
--
作者：
M. Mizutani;Haruki Nakajima;J. Kodani;Tatsuya Nogami;M. Tada
通讯作者：
M. Tada
影响因子：
1
作者：
Arimoto, Isao;Goto, Yusuke;Furubayashi, Kengo
通讯作者：
Furubayashi, Kengo