An iron cycle cascade governs the response of equatorial Pacific ecosystems to climate change
An iron cycle cascade governs the response of equatorial Pacific ecosystems to climate change
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铁循环级联控制赤道太平洋生态系统对气候变化的响应
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
O. Maury
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Tagliabue;N. Barrier;H. du Pontavice;L. Kwiatkowski;O. Aumont;L. Bopp;W. Cheung;D. Gascuel;O. Maury
地球系统模型预测，全球气候变化将减少未来海洋净初级生产力（NPP）、上层营养层生物群生物量和潜在渔业捕捞量，特别是在东赤道太平洋。然而，地球系统模型的预测受到有关铁生物循环的约束不充分的假设的影响，而铁是大部分海洋核电站的主要限制资源。在这项研究中，我们表明，NPP 的气候变化趋势和上层营养层的生物量受到修改与浮游植物铁吸收相关的假设的强烈影响。通过一系列模型实验，我们发现在高排放气候变化情景下，21 世纪气候变化对区域 NPP 的影响范围为 -12.3% 至 +2.4%。这种巨大的差异是由于赤道东太平洋上层海洋在不同的生物铁吸收情况下铁保留效率的差异造成的，这影响了区域铁限制的强度。限氮取代限铁的情景显示出预计 NPP 下降幅度最大，而限铁更具弹性的情景未来变化不大。所有模型情景在再现过去区域海洋 NPP 的年际变化方面都具有相似的能力，这主要是由于历史时期的变化有限。最终，在所有可能的情景中，对本世纪末上层营养级生物量变化的预测都会发生 50%–80% 的变化。总的来说，我们发现生物铁循环的不确定性通过公海中上层生态系统（从浮游生物到鱼类）级联，影响着它们在气候变化下的进化。这凸显了在气候变化下制定有效的保护和渔业管理政策所面临的额外挑战。
Earth System Models project that global climate change will reduce ocean net primary production (NPP), upper trophic level biota biomass and potential fisheries catches in the future, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, projections from Earth System Models are undermined by poorly constrained assumptions regarding the biological cycling of iron, which is the main limiting resource for NPP over large parts of the ocean. In this study, we show that the climate change trends in NPP and the biomass of upper trophic levels are strongly affected by modifying assumptions associated with phytoplankton iron uptake. Using a suite of model experiments, we find 21st century climate change impacts on regional NPP range from −12.3% to +2.4% under a high emissions climate change scenario. This wide range arises from variations in the efficiency of iron retention in the upper ocean in the eastern equatorial Pacific across different scenarios of biological iron uptake, which affect the strength of regional iron limitation. Those scenarios where nitrogen limitation replaced iron limitation showed the largest projected NPP declines, while those where iron limitation was more resilient displayed little future change. All model scenarios have similar skill in reproducing past inter‐annual variations in regional ocean NPP, largely due to limited change in the historical period. Ultimately, projections of end of century upper trophic level biomass change are altered by 50%–80% across all plausible scenarios. Overall, we find that uncertainties in the biological iron cycle cascade through open ocean pelagic ecosystems, from plankton to fish, affecting their evolution under climate change. This highlights additional challenges to developing effective conservation and fisheries management policies under climate change.
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影响因子：
64.8
作者：
McQuaid, Jeffrey B.;Kustka, Adam B.;Allen, Andrew E.
通讯作者：
Allen, Andrew E.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Tagliabue, Alessandro;Aumont, Olivier;Yool, Andrew
通讯作者：
Yool, Andrew
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Caputi, Luigi;Carradec, Quentin;Weissenbach, Jean
通讯作者：
Weissenbach, Jean
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1907234116
发表时间：
2019-11-19
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Coale, Tyler H.;Moosburner, Mark;Allen, Andrew E.
通讯作者：
Allen, Andrew E.
影响因子：
11
作者：
Caceres, Carlos;Spatharis, Sofie;Bonachela, Juan A.
通讯作者：
Bonachela, Juan A.