The impact of mandating a driving lesson for elderly drivers in Japan using count data models: Case study of Toyota City.
The impact of mandating a driving lesson for elderly drivers in Japan using count data models: Case study of Toyota City.
复制标题
使用计数数据模型为日本老年驾驶员强制开设驾驶课程的影响：丰田市案例研究。
DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2021.106015
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Ando
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jia Yang;Toshiyuki Yamamoto;R. Ando
作为老年司机的一个重要的出行问题，老年司机造成的车辆碰撞在日本近年来占车辆碰撞总数的比例有所上升。强制老年司机上驾驶课，并不断修订，以减少车辆相撞的次数。要给老年司机上一堂实用的驾驶课，评估它是否能显著减少车辆碰撞是至关重要的。以前的大多数研究只使用相当简单的方法调查了它对致命率或重伤率的影响，而没有考虑老年司机数量的增加和不同月份车辆碰撞的差异性。为了弥合这些研究差距，本研究采用一些基于月度水平的高级统计方法，考察了强制老年司机上驾驶课的影响。本文采用2005年4月至2019年12月在日本丰田市收集的车辆碰撞记录进行实证分析。提出了三种计数数据模型，即泊松回归模型、负二项回归模型和泊松整值自回归(INAR)(1)模型。对三种模型进行了比较，以表明估计结果的相似性和差异性。本研究的显著结果表明：1)三个模型具有相同的预测精度，分别以均方根误差、平均绝对误差和均方误差为指标；2)三个模型均表明，2017年3月老年驾驶人换证条例的修订对撞车次数有显著的负影响，达到10%的显著水平；3)所有的模型都表明，65岁及以上的司机人数和月份变异性是影响车辆撞车次数的显著因素，至少有10%的显著水平；4)Poisson Inar(1)模型的结果表明，老年驾驶员造成的车辆碰撞不存在时间序列特性。本研究提出的统计方法可供研究人员和工程技术人员在交通运输工程研究领域评价交通安全措施的效果时参考。
As one crucial mobility problem for elderly drivers, vehicle crashes due to elderly drivers account for an increased ratio of total vehicle crashes in recent years in Japan. Mandating a driving lesson for elderly drivers was implemented and revised continuously to reduce the number of vehicle crashes. To perform a practical driving lesson for elderly drivers, it is essential to evaluate whether it can reduce vehicle crashes significantly or not. Most previous studies only investigated its effects on fatal or severe rates using rather simple methods, without consideration for the increasing number of elderly drivers and the variability of vehicle crashes in different months. To bridge these research gaps, this study examines the impact of mandating a driving lesson for elderly drivers by some advanced statistical methods based on a monthly level. Vehicle crash records from April 2005 to December 2019 collected in Toyota City, Japan are used for empirical analysis. Three types of count data models, i.e., the Poisson regression model, the Negative Binomial regression model, and the Poisson Integer-Valued Autoregressive (INAR) (1) model are proposed in this study. A comparison of three proposed models was implemented to indicate the similarity and distinction of estimation results. The significant findings of this study suggest that: 1) three proposed models have the same prediction accuracy referring to indexes of Root Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Mean Squared Error; 2) all of them indicate that the revision of license renewal legislation for elderly drivers in March 2017 is a significant factor negatively affecting the number of vehicle crashes at a 10 % significance level; 3) all of them indicate that the number of drivers aged 65 years or older and month-variability are significant factors affecting the number of vehicle crashes at least a 10 % significance level; 4) the time-series nature of vehicle crashes due to elderly drivers was not existing indicated by the result of the Poisson INAR (1) model. Statistical methods proposed in this study can be referred by researchers and engineers to evaluate the effects of traffic safety measures in the research field of traffic and transportation engineering.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Ichikawa, Masao;Inada, Haruhiko;Nakahara, Shinji
通讯作者：
Nakahara, Shinji