Quantifying lead-time bias in risk factor studies of cancer through simulation.
Quantifying lead-time bias in risk factor studies of cancer through simulation.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.annepidem.2013.07.021
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发表时间：
2013-11
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Church, Timothy R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jansen, Rick J.;Alexander, Bruce H.;Anderson, Kristin E.;Church, Timothy R.
关键词：
提前期是早期检测所固有的，并在筛选疗效的观察性研究中产生偏倚，但其在风险因素研究中偏倚效应估计的可能性并不总是被认识到。我们描述了一种形式的这种偏见，传统的分析不能解决和开发一个模型来量化it.Surveillance流行病学和最终结果（SEER）的数据形成的基础上估计的年龄特异性临床前发病率和对数正态分布描述的临床前持续时间分布。模拟假设风险因素或筛查对癌症临床前发病率无影响的联合零假设，然后将偏倚量化为该零研究的风险因素比值比（OR）。在实际研究中，该偏倚可用作调整观察到的OR的因素。结果表明，对于这种特定的研究设计，随着平均临床前持续时间的增加，总体力活动OR的偏倚从高于零值的1%单调增加到22%，但吸烟OR从高于零值的1%单调下降到低于零值的5%。在固定风险因素效应估计中发现的非平凡偏倚证明了在易感性研究中定量评估它的重要性。
Lead-time is inherent in early detection and creates bias in observational studies of screening efficacy, but its potential to bias effect estimates in risk-factor studies is not always recognized. We describe a form of this bias that conventional analyses cannot address and develop a model to quantify it. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data form the basis for estimates of age-specific preclinical incidence and log-normal distributions describe the preclinical duration distribution. Simulations assume a joint null hypothesis of no effect of either the risk factor or screening on the preclinical incidence of cancer, and then quantify the bias as the risk-factor odds ratio (OR) from this null study. This bias can be used as a factor to adjust observed OR in the actual study. Results showed that for this particular study design, as average preclinical duration increased, the bias in the total-physical-activity OR monotonically increased from 1% to 22% above the null, but the smoking OR monotonically decreased from 1% above the null to 5% below the null. The finding of nontrivial bias in fixed risk-factor effect estimates demonstrates the importance of quantitatively evaluating it in susceptible studies.
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影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Neal, DE;Leung, HY;Donovan, JL
通讯作者：
Donovan, JL
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa0810696
发表时间：
2009-03-26
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Andriole GL;Crawford ED;Grubb RL 3rd;Buys SS;Chia D;Church TR;Fouad MN;Gelmann EP;Kvale PA;Reding DJ;Weissfeld JL;Yokochi LA;O'Brien B;Clapp JD;Rathmell JM;Riley TL;Hayes RB;Kramer BS;Izmirlian G;Miller AB;Pinsky PF;Prorok PC;Gohagan JK;Berg CD;PLCO Project Team
通讯作者：
PLCO Project Team
DOI：
10.1093/jnci/djr500
发表时间：
2012-01-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF THE NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE
影响因子：
--
作者：
Andriole, Gerald L.;Crawford, E. David;Prorok, Philip C.
通讯作者：
Prorok, Philip C.
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
WEISS, NS
通讯作者：
WEISS, NS
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
Maldonado, G;Greenland, S
通讯作者：
Greenland, S