Nonlinear time series analysis: towards an effective forecast of rogue waves
Nonlinear time series analysis: towards an effective forecast of rogue waves
复制标题
非线性时间序列分析：有效预测异常波浪
DOI：
10.1117/12.2208251
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Ayhan Demircan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Günter Steinmeyer;Simon Birkholz;Carsten Brée;Ayhan Demircan
异常波是一种非常大的波，超出了基于长期观测和高斯统计的任何预期。海洋异常浪比海洋中的有效波高高出2倍。在许多光学系统中也观察到类似的现象。虽然光学系统显示异常事件的频率比海洋高得多，但对于海洋异常波的预测可以得出什么结论似乎是值得怀疑的。在这里，我们从不同的角度来解决这个问题，并使用非线性时间序列分析分析了两个光学系统以及海洋中流氓事件的可预测性。我们的分析完全基于实验数据。结果似乎相当令人惊讶，因为基于光纤的超连续统产生的光学异常波情景不允许任何预测，而真实的海洋异常波和多丝情景确实具有相当大的确定性，至少在原则上，这允许预测极端事件。更明显的是，存在两种完全不同类型的rogue-wave支持系统。一类异常波显然是由量子涨落播种的，而在另一类中，波的线性随机干涉似乎占上风。
Rogue waves are extremely large waves that exceed any expectation based on long-term observation and Gaussian statistics. Ocean rogue waves exceed the significant wave height in the ocean by a factor 2. Similar phenomena have been observed in a multiplicity of optical systems. While the optical systems show a much higher frequency of rogue events than the ocean, it appears nevertheless questionable what conclusions can be drawn for the prediction of ocean rogue waves. Here we tackle the problem from a different perspective and analyze the predictability of rogue events in two optical systems as well as in the ocean using nonlinear time-series analysis. Our analysis is exclusively based on experimental data. The results appear rather surprising as the optical rogue wave scenario of fiber-based supercontinuum generation does not allow any prediction whereas real ocean rogue waves and a multifilament scenario do bear a considerable amount of determinism, which allows, at least in principle, the prediction of extreme events. It becomes further clear that there exist two fundamentally different types of rogue-wave supporting systems. One class of rogue waves is obviously seeded by quantum fluctuations whereas in the other class, linear random interference of waves seems to prevail.
影响因子：
8.6
作者：
Birkholz, Simon;Bree, Carsten;Steinmeyer, Guenter
通讯作者：
Steinmeyer, Guenter
影响因子：
8.6
作者：
Birkholz, Simon;Nibbering, Erik T. J.;Steinmeyer, Gunter
通讯作者：
Steinmeyer, Gunter