A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe
A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe
复制标题
火山灰云影响北欧 7000 年的展望
作者：
G. Swindles;I. Lawson;I. Savov;C. Connor;G. Plunkett
公元2010年冰岛埃亚菲亚德拉火山爆发造成的火山灰云严重扰乱了整个欧洲的航空旅行，但作为一个地质事件，它并不是前所未有的。对来自北方的泥炭和湖泊沉积物的分析揭示了冰岛火山灰（火山灰）的微观层的存在。这些沉积物记录，连同全新世火山灰福尔斯的历史记录，证明冰岛火山已经产生了大量的火山灰云，并多次到达北方欧洲。在这里，我们提出了第一个全面的汇编沉积和历史记录的灰落事件在北方欧洲，跨越过去7000年。在过去的1500年里，降尘事件似乎更加频繁。目前还不清楚这是否反映了喷发频率或扩散的真正增加，或者是记录的人为因素或它们产生的方式。在过去的1000年里，火山灰云到达北方欧洲的平均重现期为56 ± 9年（重现期的范围为6 ~ 115年）。利用上个千年的火山灰记录进行的概率建模表明，在任何10年的时间里，北方欧洲发生火山灰沉降事件的概率为16%。由于火山灰在沉积记录中的捕获和保存的性质，这些值必须被视为保守的估计。
The ash cloud resulting from the A.D. 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland caused severe disruption to air travel across Europe, but as a geological event it is not unprecedented. Analysis of peats and lake sediments from northern Europe has revealed the presence of microscopic layers of Icelandic volcanic ash (tephra). These sedimentary records, together with historical records of Holocene ash falls, demonstrate that Icelandic volcanoes have generated substantial ash clouds that reached northern Europe many times. Here we present the first comprehensive compilation of sedimentary and historical records of ash-fall events in northern Europe, spanning the past 7000 yr. Ash-fall events appear to have been more frequent in the past 1500 yr. It is unclear whether this reflects a true increase in eruption frequency or dispersal, or is an artifact of the records or the way in which they have been generated. In the past 1000 yr, volcanic ash clouds reached northern Europe with a mean return interval of 56 ± 9 yr (the range of return intervals is between 6 and 115 yr). Probabilistic modeling using the ash records for the last millennium indicates that for any 10 yr period there is a 16% probability of a tephra fallout event in northern Europe. These values must be considered as conservative estimates due to the nature of tephra capture and preservation in the sedimentary record.
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Davies, Siwan M.;Larsen, Gudrun;Thordarson, Thor
通讯作者：
Thordarson, Thor