Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production
Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production
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海冰和温度变化对北极海洋生产的相对影响
DOI：
10.1029/2019jg005343
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wang, Shanlin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gibson, Georgina;Weijer, Wilbert;Jeffery, Nicole;Wang, Shanlin
我们使用现代地球系统模型来近似冰与温度对北极海洋生态系统动态的相对重要性。我们发现，虽然该模型充分模拟了北极的冰量，水温，海气CO2通量和年初级生产力，但它低估了整个地区的上层水柱硝酸盐。这种硝酸盐偏见可能是负责冰藻生产的明显低估。尽管有这个缺点，该模型似乎是一个有用的工具，探索环境变化对浮游植物生产和碳动力学的影响在北冰洋。我们的实验表明，在气候变暖的情况下，海洋变暖的百分比可以分摊到冰面积的减少范围从11%到100%，而冰面积的减少可以占每年海洋初级生产力增加的22%到100%。响应冰和温度变化的CO2海气通量的变化平均增加了5.5 Tg C yr-1（3.5%），进入海洋。这种增加的碳汇可能是短暂的，因为冰盖继续减少，海洋变暖。浮游植物对温度升高和冰减少的固碳作用的变化一般比CO2通量的变化大一个数量级以上，这突出表明在评估北极碳循环动态时充分考虑海洋生态系统变化的重要性。我们的工作证明了冰动力学在控制海洋变暖和生产方面的重要性，因此如果我们希望准确预测北极变化，就需要在地球系统模型中建立表现良好的冰和BGC模型。
We use a modern Earth system model to approximate the relative importance of ice versus temperature on Arctic marine ecosystem dynamics. We show that while the model adequately simulates ice volume, water temperature, air‐sea CO2flux, and annual primary production in the Arctic, itunderestimates upper water column nitrate across the region. This nitrate bias is likely responsible for the apparent underestimation of ice algae production. Despite this shortcoming, the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on phytoplankton production and carbon dynamics over the Arctic Ocean. Our experiments indicate that under a warmer climate scenario, the percentage of ocean warming that could be apportioned to a reduction in ice area ranged from 11% to 100%, while decreasing ice area could account for 22–100% of the increase in annual ocean primary production. The change to CO2air‐sea flux in response to ice and temperature changes averaged an Arctic‐wide 5.5 Tg C yr−1(3.5%) increase, into the ocean. This increased carbon sink may be short‐lived, as ice cover continues to decrease and the ocean warms. The change in carbon fixation from phytoplankton in response to increased temperatures and reduced ice was generally more than a magnitude larger than the changes to CO2flux, highlighting the importance of fully considering changes to the marine ecosystem when assessing Arctic carbon cycle dynamics. Our work demonstrates the importance of ice dynamics in controlling ocean warming and production and thus the need for well‐behaved ice and BGC models within Earth system models if we hope to accurately predict Arctic changes.
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