Preemption in Singular Causation Judgments: A Computational Model
Preemption in Singular Causation Judgments: A Computational Model
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单一因果判断中的先发制人：一个计算模型
DOI：
10.1111/tops.12309
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Waldmann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stephan;Waldmann
关于单一案例的因果关系查询无处不在，但我们如何评估特定结果是否实际上是由特定的潜在原因引起的问题却很难回答。依靠因果力量框架（Cheng，），Cheng和Novick（）提出了一个因果归因模型，旨在帮助回答这个问题。我们从概念和经验两方面对这种模式提出了挑战。我们认为，这个模型的核心问题是，它把因果权力的概率足以产生的效果在一个特定的场合作为实际原因的效果，从而忽略了足够的因果权力可以preemptedin其功效。此外，该模型没有考虑到，推理机纳入不确定性的基本一般因果结构和强度的原因时，作出因果推断。本文提出了一种新的因果归因测度，并将其嵌入到奇异因果关系的结构归纳模型（SISC; Stephan & Waldmann）中。两个实验支持该模型。
Causal queries about singular cases are ubiquitous, yet the question of how we assess whether a particular outcome was actually caused by a specific potential cause turns out to be difficult to answer. Relying on the causal power framework (Cheng, ), Cheng and Novick () proposed a model of causal attribution intended to help answer this question. We challenge this model, both conceptually and empirically. We argue that the central problem of this model is that it treats causal powers that are probabilistically sufficient to generate the effect on a particular occasion as actual causes of the effect, and thus neglects that sufficient causal powers can bepreemptedin their efficacy. Also, the model does not take into account that reasoners incorporate uncertainty about the underlying general causal structure and strength of causes when making causal inferences. We propose a new measure of causal attribution and embed it into the structure induction model of singular causation (SISC; Stephan & Waldmann, ). Two experiments support the model.
单一案例原因：证据是什么以及原因。
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Nancy Cartwright
通讯作者：
Nancy Cartwright
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Hitchcock, Christopher
通讯作者：
Hitchcock, Christopher