Predicting optimum crop designs using crop models and seasonal climate forecasts.
Predicting optimum crop designs using crop models and seasonal climate forecasts.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-20628-2
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发表时间：
2018-02-02
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Meinke H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rodriguez D;de Voil P;Hudson D;Brown JN;Hayman P;Marrou H;Meinke H
粮食需求的预期增长以及限制将新土地纳入农业以减少排放的必要性，突出了弥合生产力差距、增加农民利润和管理旱地种植风险的紧迫性。弥补这些差距的一种方法是确定遗传(G)和农艺管理(M)的最佳组合，即作物设计（GxM），以适应当前和预期的生长环境(E)。我们对作物胁迫生理的理解表明，事后看来，那些最佳作物设计应该是已知的，而主要问题是在播种时预测E的相关属性，以便获得最佳的转基因组合。在这里，我们通过将一个经过测试的作物模型（APSIM）与一个熟练的季节性气候预测系统联系起来，来测试我们告知“后见之明”的能力，以回答“季节性气候预测技能的价值是什么，为作物设计提供信息？”结果表明，GCM POAMA-2具有较高的可靠性和较好的技术含量，可与APSIM相结合，为优化作物设计提供依据。我们的结论是，可靠且熟练的gcm可以很容易地与作物模拟模型相结合，可以用于优化作物设计，增加农民的利润并降低风险。
Expected increases in food demand and the need to limit the incorporation of new lands into agriculture to curtail emissions, highlight the urgency to bridge productivity gaps, increase farmers profits and manage risks in dryland cropping. A way to bridge those gaps is to identify optimum combination of genetics (G), and agronomic managements (M) i.e. crop designs (GxM), for the prevailing and expected growing environment (E). Our understanding of crop stress physiology indicates that in hindsight, those optimum crop designs should be known, while the main problem is to predict relevant attributes of the E, at the time of sowing, so that optimum GxM combinations could be informed. Here we test our capacity to inform that “hindsight”, by linking a tested crop model (APSIM) with a skillful seasonal climate forecasting system, to answer “What is the value of the skill in seasonal climate forecasting, to inform crop designs?” Results showed that the GCM POAMA-2 was reliable and skillful, and that when linked with APSIM, optimum crop designs could be informed. We conclude that reliable and skillful GCMs that are easily interfaced with crop simulation models, can be used to inform optimum crop designs, increase farmers profits and reduce risks.
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影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Chauhan, Y. S.;Solomon, K. F.;Rodriguez, D.
通讯作者：
Rodriguez, D.
影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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