An analysis-forecast system for uncertainty modeling of wind speed: A case study of large-scale wind farms
An analysis-forecast system for uncertainty modeling of wind speed: A case study of large-scale wind farms
复制标题
风速不确定性建模分析预测系统：以大型风电场为例
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.11.071
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发表时间：
2018-02
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Du Pei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Jianzhou;Niu Tong;Lu Haiyan;Guo Zhenhai;Yang Wendong;Du Pei
风速的不确定性分析和建模一直被认为是一项具有挑战性的任务，它对风电系统有着至关重要的影响。然而，到目前为止，大多数研究主要集中在点预测上，这实际上无法促进对所涉及的内生不确定性的量化描述。本文设计了一个分析预测系统，该系统包括分析模块和预测模块，可以为电力系统的调度调度提供合适的情景，该系统优于以往的研究。为了定性和定量地研究风速的不确定性，有效地开发了递归分析技术，并将其应用于分析模块。此外，为了准确地量化不确定性，为预测模块设计了一种新的针对不确定性挖掘的体系结构，其中通过改进的多目标水循环算法优化的非参数模型被视为预测器，用于在特征选择后为每个模式分量产生区间。大量的深入实验结果表明，所设计的系统不仅优于所考虑的基准模型，而且在风电系统中具有良好的实际应用潜力。
The uncertainty analysis and modeling of wind speed, which has an essential influence on wind power systems, is consistently considered a challenging task. However, most investigations thus far were focused mainly on point forecasts, which in reality cannot facilitate quantitative characterization of the endogenous uncertainty involved. An analysis-forecast system that includes an analysis module and a forecast module and can provide appropriate scenarios for the dispatching and scheduling of a power system is devised in this study; this system superior to those presented in previous studies. In order to qualitatively and quantitatively investigate the uncertainty of wind speed, recurrence analysis techniques are effectively developed for application in the analysis module. Furthermore, in order to quantify the uncertainty accurately, a novel architecture aimed at uncertainty mining is devised for the forecast module, where a non-parametric model optimized by an improved multi-objective water cycle algorithm is considered a predictor for producing intervals for each mode component after feature selection. The results of extensive in-depth experiments show that the devised system is not only superior to the considered benchmark models, but also has good potential practical applications in wind power systems.
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