Correcting Observational Biases in Sea Surface Temperature Observations Removes Anomalous Warmth during World War II
Correcting Observational Biases in Sea Surface Temperature Observations Removes Anomalous Warmth during World War II
复制标题
纠正海面温度观测中的观测偏差消除了二战期间的异常温暖
作者：
Duo Chan;P. Huybers
大多数历史上的海洋表面温度(SST)估计表明，由于强迫和内部气候变化，第二次世界大战的SST比预期的要高。如果是真的，这种第二次世界大战的暖异常(WW2WA)对年代际变化有重要的影响，但WW2WA也可能是由于对与水桶和机舱进气(ERI)测量相关的偏差进行了不完全的修正而产生的。为了更好地评估WW2WA的起源，我们开发了五种不同的历史SST估计(重建的R1-R5)。使用国际综合海洋-大气数据集(ICOADS)3.0版(R1)的未校正SST测量得出WW2WA为0.41°C。相比之下，仅使用桶(R2)或ERI观测值(R3)得出WW2WA分别为0.18°和0.08°C，这意味着未校正的偏差是WW2WA的主要来源。然后，我们使用扩展的线性混合效应方法来量化SST子集之间的系统差异，并基于附近SST测量对之间的差异来开发GroupWise SST调整。在应用GroupWise调整(R4)后使用所有测量结果得出WW2WA为0.13°C[95%可信区间(C.I.)：0.01°-0.26°C]，并表明美国和英国的海军观测是WW2WA的主要原因。最后，在第二次世界大战期间，夜间水桶海温被发现比白天的对应海温高，这促使使用GroupWise调整(R5)进行仅白天重建，其WW2WA0.09°C(95%C.I.：−0.01°C至0.18°C)。R5与CMIP5(95%C.I.：−0.10°C)或CMIP6合奏(95%C.I.：−0.11°C)中发现的内部变化范围一致。这些结果支持这样的假设，即WW2WA是观测偏差的产物，尽管进一步的数据和元数据分析将是重要的证实。
Most historical sea surface temperature (SST) estimates indicate warmer World War II SSTs than expected from forcing and internal climate variability. If real, this World War II warm anomaly (WW2WA) has important implications for decadal variability, but the WW2WA may also arise from incomplete corrections of biases associated with bucket and engine room intake (ERI) measurements. To better assess the origins of the WW2WA, we develop five different historical SST estimates (reconstructions R1–R5). Using uncorrected SST measurements from the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) version 3.0 (R1) gives a WW2WA of 0.41°C. In contrast, using only buckets (R2) or ERI observations (R3) gives WW2WAs of 0.18° and 0.08°C, respectively, implying that uncorrected biases are the primary source of the WW2WA. We then use an extended linear-mixed-effect method to quantify systematic differences between subsets of SSTs and develop groupwise SST adjustments based on differences between pairs of nearby SST measurements. Using all measurements after applying groupwise adjustments (R4) gives a WW2WA of 0.13°C [95% confidence interval (c.i.): 0.01°–0.26°C] and indicates that U.S. and U.K. naval observations are the primary cause of the WW2WA. Finally, nighttime bucket SSTs are found to be warmer than their daytime counterparts during WW2, prompting a daytime-only reconstruction using groupwise adjustments (R5) that has a WW2WA of 0.09°C (95% c.i.: −0.01° to 0.18°C). R5 is consistent with the range of internal variability found in either the CMIP5 (95% c.i.: −0.10° to 0.10°C) or CMIP6 ensembles (95% c.i.: −0.11° to 0.10°C). These results support the hypothesis that the WW2WA is an artifact of observational biases, although further data and metadata analyses will be important for confirmation.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Pfeiffer M;Zinke J;Dullo WC;Garbe-Schönberg D;Latif M;Weber ME
通讯作者：
Weber ME
DOI：
10.1002/joc.4775
发表时间：
2017-04-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Freeman, Eric;Woodruff, Scott D.;Smith, Shawn R.
通讯作者：
Smith, Shawn R.
ICOADS 中船舶航程重建的概率方法
DOI：
10.1002/joc.4492
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
International Journal of Climatology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Carella G
通讯作者：
Carella G
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Chan, Duo;Kent, Elizabeth C.;Huybers, Peter
通讯作者：
Huybers, Peter
影响因子：
8
作者：
Kent, Elizabeth C.;Kennedy, John J.;Zhang, Huai-Min
通讯作者：
Zhang, Huai-Min