Climate change maladaptation for health: Agricultural practice against shifting seasonal rainfall affects snakebite risk for farmers in the tropics.
Climate change maladaptation for health: Agricultural practice against shifting seasonal rainfall affects snakebite risk for farmers in the tropics.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.isci.2023.105946
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发表时间：
2023-02-17
期刊：
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Lwamura, Takuya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goldstein, Eyal;Erinjery, Joseph J.;Martin, Gerardo;Kasturiratne, Anuradhani;Ediriweera, Dileepa Senajith;Somaweera, Ruchira;de Silva, Hithanadura Janaka;Diggle, Peter;Lallod, David G.;Murray, Kris A.;Lwamura, Takuya
蛇咬伤每年影响超过180万人。解释蛇咬伤变异性的因素包括农民的行为、蛇生态和气候。一个尚未研究的问题是农民对新气候的适应如何影响他们的健康。在这里，我们使用基于个人的模拟研究了适应对蛇咬伤的潜在影响，重点是应对斯里兰卡降雨量变化导致的主要作物产量下降的策略。对于橡胶种植，由于在危险月份工作，适应导致农民每工时蛇咬伤发生率增加33%，但由于种植园整体劳动力减少，每年蛇咬伤总数减少17%。由于劳动力转向更安全的月份，水稻种植的适应性使蛇咬伤减少了16%，而茶种植的适应性则导致蛇咬伤普遍增加。这些结果表明，适应既可能产生积极影响，也可能产生消极影响，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动可能会加剧这种影响。我们的研究强调了评估潜在健康适应不良的适应策略的必要性。气候变化适应战略可能导致意外的蛇咬伤风险ENSO对风险有重大影响，具体取决于ENSO极端的季节和方向有些战略可能会降低总蛇咬伤，但增加每个农民的风险农业科学;应用科学;食品科学;食品生产的可持续性方面
Snakebite affects more than 1.8 million people annually. Factors explaining snakebite variability include farmers’ behaviors, snake ecology and climate. One unstudied issue is how farmers’ adaptation to novel climates affect their health. Here we examined potential impacts of adaptation on snakebite using individual-based simulations, focusing on strategies meant to counteract major crop yield decline because of changing rainfall in Sri Lanka. For rubber cropping, adaptation led to a 33% increase in snakebite incidence per farmer work hour because of work during risky months, but a 17% decrease in total annual snakebites because of decreased labor in plantations overall. Rice farming adaptation decreased snakebites by 16%, because of shifting labor towards safer months, whereas tea adaptation led to a general increase. These results indicate that adaptation could have both a positive and negative effect, potentially intensified by ENSO. Our research highlights the need for assessing adaptation strategies for potential health maladaptations. Climate change adaptation strategies can lead to unexpected snakebite risk ENSO has a significant effect on risk depending on season and direction of ENSO extreme Some strategies may lower aggregate snakebites but increase risk per individual farmer Agricultural science; Applied sciences; Food science; Sustainability aspects of food production
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