The multiple benefits of current and potential energy efficiency policies: A Scottish islands case study
The multiple benefits of current and potential energy efficiency policies: A Scottish islands case study
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当前和潜在能源效率政策的多重好处：苏格兰群岛案例研究
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114032
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发表时间：
2024
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Matthew C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Matthew C
能源效率对于脱碳目标至关重要，但考虑到技术、利益相关者和相互作用的异质性，量化其多重好处仍然很困难。这项研究使用100%样本的每小时模型来估计苏格兰群岛到2045年的电力需求和经济。对当前和更雄心勃勃的家电、建筑、供暖、交通和工业政策的情景进行了比较。该框架允许评估年度需求、峰值需求和平均家庭账单变化，这些变化可能会增加，也可能会减少，具体取决于政策承诺。虽然提高建筑效率可以做出贡献，但到目前为止，热泵在减少账单、年度需求和高峰需求(包括日常需求和冬季最大需求)方面具有最大的好处。高峰供暖和车辆需求的增加突显了灵活性的重要性。历史上的政策实现速度将导致电力需求大幅增加，这可能会进一步加剧本已受限的网络的压力。尽管前期成本很高，但大多数措施都有有利的回报率，而且相对于当前的电价，所有措施的净现值都是正的。支持这些成本并将收益分配给家庭、企业和能源系统的政策将是至关重要的。由于该模型只考虑了技术的变化，考虑到可能增加需求的潜在反弹效应，结果可能是乐观的。
Energy efficiency is essential for decarbonisation targets, but quantifying its multiple benefits remains difficult given heterogeneity of technologies, stakeholders, and interactions. This study uses a 100%-sample, hourly model to estimate electricity demand and economics for the Scottish islands by 2045. Scenarios of current and more ambitious policies for appliances, buildings, heating, transport and industry are compared. The framework allows assessment of annual demand, peak demand, and average household bills changes which could either increase or decrease depending on policy commitment. Although improving building efficiency can contribute, heat pumps have by far the greatest benefit in reducing bills, annual demand, and peak demand (both daily and maximum winter demand). Increased peak heating and vehicle demand highlights the importance of flexibility. Historic rates of policy achievement will result in significantly increased electricity demand, which could further stress already constrained networks. Although upfront costs are high, most measures have favourable rates of return and all have positive NPVs relative to current electricity prices. Policies to support these costs and distribute the benefits to households, businesses and the energy system will be crucial. As the model only considers changes in technologies, results are likely optimistic given potential rebound effects which could increase demand.
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DOI：
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