Estimating the annual dengue force of infection from the age of reporting primary infections across urban centres in endemic countries.
Estimating the annual dengue force of infection from the age of reporting primary infections across urban centres in endemic countries.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12916-021-02101-6
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发表时间：
2021-09-30
期刊：
影响因子：
9.3
通讯作者：
Hibberd ML
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Biggs JR;Sy AK;Sherratt K;Brady OJ;Kucharski AJ;Funk S;Reyes MAJ;Quinones MA;Jones-Warner W;Avelino FL;Sucaldito NL;Tandoc AO;la Paz EC;Capeding MRZ;Padilla CD;Hafalla JCR;Hibberd ML
在流行国家内划分登革热风险对于分配有限的控制干预措施至关重要。目前监测登革热传播强度的方法依赖于可能不准确的发病率估计。我们调查了从标准或实验室监测操作中获得的发病率或替代指标是否代表登革热负担的准确替代指标，并可用于监测城市中心的感染力（FOI）。在菲律宾13个城市报告和居住的人中，我们收集了2014年至2017年期间所有登革热病例报告的流行病学数据（N 80，043）以及2014年至2018年期间抽样病例报告的横截面（N 11，906）的额外实验室数据。在城市一级，我们使用催化模型估计了非登革热报告人群中年龄累积IgG的年度FOI。我们使用Pearson相关系数将城市聚集的FOI估计值与临床和实验室诊断的登革热病例的聚集发病率和平均年龄进行了比较，并使用回归模型生成了预测的FOI估计值。我们观察到样本城市间登革热年均FOI的空间异质性，范围从0.054 [0.036-0.081]到0.249 [0.223-0.279]。与FOI估计值相比，原发性登革热感染的平均年龄具有最强的相关性（ρ −0.848，p值<0.001），其次是报告警告体征的平均年龄（ρ −0.642，p值0.018）。使用回归模型，我们估计了从报告原发感染的年龄开始的城市中心的预测年度登革热FOI，并揭示了传播强度的显著时空异质性。我们发现，与城市中心的粗发病率相比，首次报告登革热感染者或报告登革热警告体征者的平均年龄代表登革热FOI的上级指标。我们的工作为国家登革热监测提供了一个框架，以定期监测传播情况，并将控制干预措施针对最需要的人群。在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1186/s12916-021-02101-6获得。
Stratifying dengue risk within endemic countries is crucial for allocating limited control interventions. Current methods of monitoring dengue transmission intensity rely on potentially inaccurate incidence estimates. We investigated whether incidence or alternate metrics obtained from standard, or laboratory, surveillance operations represent accurate surrogate indicators of the burden of dengue and can be used to monitor the force of infection (FOI) across urban centres. Among those who reported and resided in 13 cities across the Philippines, we collected epidemiological data from all dengue case reports between 2014 and 2017 (N 80,043) and additional laboratory data from a cross-section of sampled case reports (N 11,906) between 2014 and 2018. At the city level, we estimated the aggregated annual FOI from age-accumulated IgG among the non-dengue reporting population using catalytic modelling. We compared city-aggregated FOI estimates to aggregated incidence and the mean age of clinically and laboratory diagnosed dengue cases using Pearson’s Correlation coefficient and generated predicted FOI estimates using regression modelling. We observed spatial heterogeneity in the dengue average annual FOI across sampled cities, ranging from 0.054 [0.036–0.081] to 0.249 [0.223–0.279]. Compared to FOI estimates, the mean age of primary dengue infections had the strongest association (ρ −0.848, p value<0.001) followed by the mean age of those reporting with warning signs (ρ −0.642, p value 0.018). Using regression modelling, we estimated the predicted annual dengue FOI across urban centres from the age of those reporting with primary infections and revealed prominent spatio-temporal heterogeneity in transmission intensity. We show the mean age of those reporting with their first dengue infection or those reporting with warning signs of dengue represent superior indicators of the dengue FOI compared to crude incidence across urban centres. Our work provides a framework for national dengue surveillance to routinely monitor transmission and target control interventions to populations most in need. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-021-02101-6.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Dussart P;Duong V;Bleakley K;Fortas C;Lorn Try P;Kim KS;Choeung R;In S;Andries AC;Cantaert T;Flamand M;Buchy P;Sakuntabhai A
通讯作者：
Sakuntabhai A
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Basker, Parasuraman;Kannan, Pichai;Kadhiresan, Mahaligam
通讯作者：
Kadhiresan, Mahaligam
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Cavailler, Philippe;Tarantola, Arnaud;Buchy, Philippe
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Buchy, Philippe
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Luo, Shuying;Cui, Weihong;Sun, Jimin
通讯作者：
Sun, Jimin
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Imai N;Dorigatti I;Cauchemez S;Ferguson NM
通讯作者：
Ferguson NM