Precipitation changes in wet and dry seasons over the 20th century simulated by two versions of the FGOALS model
Precipitation changes in wet and dry seasons over the 20th century simulated by two versions of the FGOALS model
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两个版本的 FGOALS 模型模拟 20 世纪干湿季降水量变化
DOI：
10.1007/s00376-014-4136-x
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发表时间：
2015-03
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
周天军
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
马双梅;周天军
利用两个不同版本的全球海气陆系统（FGOALS）模式，对20世纪世纪地球仪的季节性降水变化进行了模拟。这两种型号在AGCM组件方面有所不同，但系统的其余部分几乎相同。两个模式都合理地再现了雨季和旱季的时间和相关降水量的平均状态特征，与观测的模式相关系数为0.65-0.84。分析了全球平均季节降水量的变化。结果表明，在世纪，两个模式的湿季变湿，年变差（干湿季降水差）增大，地球仪的大部分地区都有正趋势，这与观测结果一致。然而，这两个模型都显示了一个湿润的旱季，这与观测相反。分析全球平均水分收支的历史气候模拟的两个模式表明，在湿季和旱季的水平水分平流变化不大。全球平均降水量的季节变化主要受蒸发和垂直水汽平流的影响。蒸发和垂直水分平流联合收割机使雨季更加湿润，并增加了年变化幅度。在旱季，蒸发和垂直水汽平流的相反变化导致降水量的变化不明显。垂直水汽平流是决定降水变化的最重要的项，其中热力分量占主导地位，动力分量往往抵消热力分量的影响。
Seasonal precipitation changes over the globe during the 20th century simulated by two versions of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model are assessed. The two model versions differ in terms of their AGCM component, but the remaining parts of the system are almost identical. Both models reasonably reproduce the mean-state features of the timings of the wet and dry seasons and related precipitation amounts, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.65–0.84 with observations. Globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are analyzed. The results show that wet seasons get wetter and the annual range (precipitation difference between wet and dry seasons) increases during the 20th century in the two models, with positive trends covering most parts of the globe, which is consistent with observations. However, both models show a moistening dry season, which is opposite to observations. Analysis of the globally averaged moisture budget in the historical climate simulations of the two models shows little change in the horizontal moisture advection in both the wet and dry seasons. The globally averaged seasonal precipitation changes are mainly dominated by the changes in evaporation and vertical moisture advection. Evaporation and vertical moisture advection combine to make wet seasons wetter and enhance the annual range. In the dry season, the opposite change of evaporation and vertical moisture advection leads to an insignificant change in precipitation. Vertical moisture advection is the most important term that determines the changes in precipitation, wherein the thermodynamic component is dominant and the dynamic component tends to offset the effect of the thermodynamic component.
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