Size Matters The Effects of Political Orientation, Majority Status, and Majority Size on Misperceptions of Public Opinion
Size Matters The Effects of Political Orientation, Majority Status, and Majority Size on Misperceptions of Public Opinion
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规模很重要政治倾向、多数地位和多数规模对舆论误解的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Dvir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Dvir
根据认知研究，社会多数派成员比少数派成员更善于估计共识，因为后者往往高估他们的观点的受欢迎程度。这些差异已被解释使用动机推理模型。本研究的目的是双重的：验证多数成员确实提供了更准确的公众共识估计，并测试这种关系的政治取向的影响。根据动机推理模型，右翼意识形态的支持者会高估对他们群体的支持，特别是在少数群体中，因为他们对政治威胁有更强烈的反应。研究涉及三个案例研究。首先，使用多水平分析对10年内进行的33次调查（N = 15，129）的数据进行了分析。结果表明，（a）多数成员在衡量一致意见方面比少数成员更准确;（B）多数成员和少数成员之间的准确性差距随着多数成员的规模而增加;（c）持右翼态度的人倾向于高估他们的群体规模，在少数成员或对他们的意见的支持下降时更是如此。第二个案例研究分析了四个不同问题的数据，使用受试者内的方法（N = 450）。研究结果相似，除了对大多数大小无显著影响。最后，在第三个案例研究中，因果关系的机制建议支持的实验设置（N = 388）。结果进行了讨论的动机推理模型的信息处理和意识形态。
According to cognitive research, members of a social majority are better than minority members at estimating the consensus, since the latter tend to overestimate the popularity of their opinion. These differences have been explained using the motivational reasoning model. The purpose of the current study is twofold: to verify that majority members indeed provide more accurate public consensus estimations and to test the effect of political orientation on this relation. Following the motivational reasoning model, it is suggested that proponents of right-wing ideology will overestimate support for their group, especially when in the minority, since they have a stronger reaction to political threat. The research involved three case studies. In the first, data from 33 surveys conducted over 10 years (N = 15,129) were analyzed using multilevel analysis. The results showed that (a) majority members are more accurate in gauging consensual opinions than minority members; (b) the gap in accuracy between majority and minority members increases with the size of the majority; and (c) those holding right-wing attitudes tend to overestimate their group size, more so when in the minority or when support for their opinion declines. The second case study analyzed data on four different issues, using a within-subject approach (N = 450). The findings were similar, with the exception of a nonsignificant effect for majority size. Finally, in the third case study, the causal mechanism suggested was supported by an experimental setting (N = 388). The results are discussed in light of the motivational reasoning model regarding information processing and ideology.
成员资格有其（认知）回报：需要封闭效应对群体内偏见的影响。
影响因子：
7.6
作者：
Shah,JY;Kruglanski,AW;Thompson,EP
通讯作者：
Thompson,EP