A volumetric prediction model for postoperative cyst shrinkage.

A volumetric prediction model for postoperative cyst shrinkage.
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DOI:
10.1007/s00784-021-03907-7
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发表时间:
2021-11
影响因子:
3.4
通讯作者:
Kuchler U
Kuchler U
中科院分区:
医学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Feher B;Frommlet F;Lettner S;Gruber R;Nemeth LE;Ulm C;Kuchler U

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由于颌骨囊肿手术后的尺寸变化信息有限,术后囊肿缩小在很大程度上仍然无法预测。我们的目的是提出一个模型的体积收缩的基础上经过的时间,因为囊肿手术。我们使用了2007年至2017年期间接受囊肿摘除术或减压术的患者的数据,每位患者至少进行了三次计算机断层扫描(CT)扫描。我们拟合了一个简单的指数衰减模型[V(t)= V0 · e− β t]和一个具有患者特异性衰减率的模型[Vk(t)= V0 · e−βt + γkt]。基于36例患者(手术时中位年龄:45.5岁,IQR:32.3-55.3,44%为女性)的108次CT扫描,我们的简单指数衰减模型为V(t)= V0 · e−0.0035t,其中V(t)是手术后时间t后的残留囊肿体积,V0是初始囊肿体积,e是自然对数的底。考虑患者特异性衰减率,模型为Vk(t)= V0 · e−0.0049t + γkt,其中γk呈正态分布,期望值为0,标准差为0.0041。使用指数回归模型,我们能够可靠地估计颌骨囊肿手术后的体积收缩。患者特异性衰减率显著改善了模型的拟合,而添加特定协变量作为交互作用效应以模拟衰减率并未提供任何显著改善。估计术后囊肿缩小是相关的治疗计划颌骨囊肿手术,以及评估手术方法的临床成功。在线版本包含补充材料,可通过10.1007/s 00784 -021-03907-7获得。
With only limited information available on dimensional changes after jaw cyst surgery, postoperative cyst shrinkage remains largely unpredictable. We aimed to propose a model for volumetric shrinkage based on time elapsed since cyst surgery. We used data from patients that underwent cyst enucleation or decompression between 2007 and 2017 and had at least three computed tomography (CT) scans per patient. We fitted one simple exponential decay model [V(t) = V0 · e−ɑt] and one model with a patient-specific decay rate [Vk(t) = V0 · e−βt + γkt]. Based on 108 CT scans from 36 patients (median age at surgery: 45.5 years, IQR: 32.3–55.3, 44% female), our simple exponential decay model is V(t) = V0 · e−0.0035t where V(t) is the residual cyst volume after time t elapsed since surgery, V0 is the initial cyst volume, and e is the base of the natural logarithm. Considering a patient-specific decay rate, the model is Vk(t) = V0 · e−0.0049t + γkt where γk is normally distributed, with expectation 0 and standard deviation 0.0041. Using an exponential regression model, we were able to reliably estimate volumetric shrinkage after jaw cyst surgery. The patient-specific decay rate substantially improved the fit of the model, whereas adding specific covariates as interaction effects to model the decay rate did not provide any significant improvement. Estimating postoperative cyst shrinkage is relevant for both treatment planning of jaw cyst surgery as well as evaluating the clinical success of the surgical approach. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00784-021-03907-7.
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发表时间: 2004-12-01
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