The impact of emission and climate change on ozone in the United States under representative concentration pathways (RCPs).
The impact of emission and climate change on ozone in the United States under representative concentration pathways (RCPs).
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-13-9607-2013
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发表时间：
2013-09
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Liu Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gao Y;Fu JS;Drake JB;Lamarque JF;Liu Y
本研究应用动态降尺度将全球气候化学模型社区大气模型 (CAM-Chem) 与区域模型天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型以及社区多尺度空气质量 (CMAQ) 联系起来。使用两种代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 情景（RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5）来评估 2050 年代气候对臭氧浓度的影响。从CAM-Chem全球模拟结果来看，北半球从中纬度到高纬度的对流层中低层到中层（地表到~300 hPa）的臭氧浓度，到2050年代末（2057-2059年）RCP 4.5与现在（2001-2004年）相比有所下降，其中最大下降发生在夏季和秋季，为4-10 ppbv；由于甲烷排放量增加，RCP 8.5 的浓度增加高达 10 ppbv。从区域模式CMAQ模拟结果来看，在RCP 4.5情景下（2057-2059年），在光化学反应最活跃的夏季，臭氧前体物排放量大幅减少导致地表臭氧浓度较现在（2001-2004年）降幅最大，范围为6-10 ppbv。然而，由于 NO 滴定减弱，一些主要城市的臭氧增加了 3 至 7 ppbv。在 RCP 8.5 情景下，冬季，由于甲烷排放量增加，几乎整个美国大陆的臭氧浓度下降，浓度范围为 3 至 10 ppbv。预计到 2050 年代末，RCP 8.5 将出现更强烈的热浪，导致美国九个气候区域的平均最大每日 8 小时日平均 (MDA8) 臭氧增加 0.3 ppbv 至 2.0 ppbv（除东南地区外，统计显着）。此外，MDA8 增加的 95% 上限在 RCP 4.5 中达到 0.4 ppbv 至 1.5 ppbv，在 RCP 8.5 中达到 0.6 ppbv 至 3.2 ppbv。 RCP 4.5和8.5增加幅度的差异也反映出甲烷排放量的增加可能有利于或加强热浪的影响。
Dynamical downscaling was applied in this study to link the global climate-chemistry model Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-Chem) with the regional models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the climate impact on ozone concentrations in the 2050s. From the CAM-Chem global simulation results, ozone concentrations in the lower to mid-troposphere (surface to ~300 hPa), from mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, decreases by the end of the 2050s (2057–2059) in RCP 4.5 compared to present (2001–2004), with the largest decrease of 4–10 ppbv occurring in the summer and the fall; and an increase as high as 10 ppbv in RCP 8.5 resulting from the increased methane emissions. From the regional model CMAQ simulation results, under the RCP 4.5 scenario (2057–2059), in the summer when photochemical reactions are the most active, the large ozone precursor emissions reduction leads to the greatest decrease of downscaled surface ozone concentrations compared to present (2001–2004), ranging from 6 to 10 ppbv. However, a few major cities show ozone increases of 3 to 7 ppbv due to weakened NO titration. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, in winter, downscaled ozone concentrations increase across nearly the entire continental US in winter, ranging from 3 to 10 ppbv due to increased methane emissions. More intense heat waves are projected to occur by the end of the 2050s in RCP 8.5, leading to a 0.3 ppbv to 2.0 ppbv increase (statistically significant except in the Southeast) of the mean maximum daily 8 h daily average (MDA8) ozone in nine climate regions in the US. Moreover, the upper 95% limit of MDA8 increase reaches 0.4 ppbv to 1.5 ppbv in RCP 4.5 and 0.6 ppbv to 3.2 ppbv in RCP 8.5. The magnitude differences of increase between RCP 4.5 and 8.5 also reflect that the increase of methane emissions may favor or strengthen the effect of heat waves.
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影响因子：
6.3
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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