A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir
A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir
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多宿主系统中牛分枝杆菌传播的新系统动力学模型揭示了未观察到的储存库的作用
DOI：
10.1101/2021.04.07.438783
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
O'Hare A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
O'Hare A
多宿主病原体特别难以控制，特别是当至少一个宿主作为隐藏的宿主时。对密集采样的病原体进行深度测序有可能改变这种认识，但需要采用共同考虑流行病学和遗传数据的分析方法，以最好地解决这一问题。虽然在单物种系统的分析方面取得了相当大的成功，但隐藏的水库问题却相对研究不足。这个问题的一个著名例子是牛结核病，这是一种在英国和爱尔兰牛中发现的由牛分枝杆菌引起的疾病，长期以来，欧亚獾被认为是一个水库，但除了在非常特定的地方之外，仍然没有量化的重要性。因此，应该努力控制獾的疾病还不清楚。在这里，我们分析了从牛群中收集的流行病学和遗传数据，但没有明确考虑獾的任何数据。我们使用模拟建模的方法来表明，在我们的系统中，一个模型，利用现有的牛的人口统计和牲畜到牛群的运动数据，但只考虑隐藏的水库产生病原体多样性的能力，可以用来选择不同的流行病学场景。在我们的分析中，水库不产生任何多样性，但有助于在当地农场规模的新感染的模型显着优于在更广泛的空间尺度上产生多样性和/或传播疾病的模型。虽然我们不能直接归因于水库的作用，獾基于这一分析，结果支持的假设，在目前的牛控制制度下，感染的牛不能单独维持M。牛的循环鉴于从彼此靠近的牛和獾身上取样的细菌之间观察到的密切的系统发育关系，最简约的假设是，水库是受感染的獾种群。更广泛地说，我们的方法表明，精心构建的定制模型可以利用遗传和流行病学数据的组合来克服极端数据偏差的问题，并揭示多宿主病原体系统中传播的重要一般特征。
Multi-host pathogens are particularly difficult to control, especially when at least one of the hosts acts as a hidden reservoir. Deep sequencing of densely sampled pathogens has the potential to transform this understanding, but requires analytical approaches that jointly consider epidemiological and genetic data to best address this problem. While there has been considerable success in analyses of single species systems, the hidden reservoir problem is relatively under-studied. A well-known exemplar of this problem is bovine Tuberculosis, a disease found in British and Irish cattle caused byMycobacterium bovis, where the Eurasian badger has long been believed to act as a reservoir but remains of poorly quantified importance except in very specific locations. As a result, the effort that should be directed at controlling disease in badgers is unclear. Here, we analyse densely collected epidemiological and genetic data from a cattle population but do not explicitly consider any data from badgers. We use a simulation modelling approach to show that, in our system, a model that exploits available cattle demographic and herd-to-herd movement data, but only considers the ability of a hidden reservoir to generate pathogen diversity, can be used to choose between different epidemiological scenarios. In our analysis, a model where the reservoir does not generate any diversity but contributes to new infections at a local farm scale are significantly preferred over models which generate diversity and/or spread disease at broader spatial scales. While we cannot directly attribute the role of the reservoir to badgers based on this analysis alone, the result supports the hypothesis that under current cattle control regimes, infected cattle alone cannot sustainM. boviscirculation. Given the observed close phylogenetic relationship for the bacteria taken from cattle and badgers sampled near to each other, the most parsimonious hypothesis is that the reservoir is the infected badger population. More broadly, our approach demonstrates that carefully constructed bespoke models can exploit the combination of genetic and epidemiological data to overcome issues of extreme data bias, and uncover important general characteristics of transmission in multi-host pathogen systems.
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影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Courcier, Emily A.;Menzies, Fraser D.;Abernethy, Darrell A.
通讯作者：
Abernethy, Darrell A.
DOI：
10.20506/rst.20.2.1293
发表时间：
2001-08-01
期刊：
REVUE SCIENTIFIQUE ET TECHNIQUE DE L OFFICE INTERNATIONAL DES EPIZOOTIES
影响因子：
--
作者：
Houston, R
通讯作者：
Houston, R
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
P. Bessell;R. Orton;P. White;M. R. Hutchings;R. Kao
通讯作者：
R. Kao
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Skuce, R. A.;Mallon, T. R.;McDowell, S. W. J.
通讯作者：
McDowell, S. W. J.
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
Crispell, Joseph;Benton, Clare H.;Kao, Rowland Raymond
通讯作者：
Kao, Rowland Raymond