Seasonal synchronization of influenza in the United States older adult population.
Seasonal synchronization of influenza in the United States older adult population.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0010187
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发表时间：
2010-04-15
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Naumova EN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wenger JB;Naumova EN
在温带地区，流感流行每年发生，冬季活动最频繁。虽然疾病控制和预防中心流感监测系统充分记录了流感病毒的季节性动态，例如发病时间和循环毒株，但季节性流感的循环毒株的时间，幅度和组成的准确预测仍然难以捉摸。为了促进公众对季节性流感的准备，并更好地了解新出现的菌株的时空行为，重要的是要开发可测量的季节性振荡特征，并量化这些参数之间的关系在空间尺度上。我们研究的目的是在国家和州一级检查流感的季节性，以及美国老年人人群中流感高峰时间和强度之间的关系。从医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心提取了1991-2004年流感季节的248,889份住院记录。谐波回归模型用于量化48个相邻州和华盛顿，DC的峰值时间和绝对强度。我们发现，与整体平均水平相比，每个流感季节的各个流感季节在所有48个州都表现出一致的晚或早时间同步性。在全国范围内，高峰期较早的季节也有较高的流感发病率（rs =-0.5）。 我们证明了流感高峰时间的空间趋势;西部各州如内华达州、犹他州和加州高峰较早，新英格兰各州如罗得岛、缅因州和新罕布什尔州高峰较晚。我们的研究结果表明，流感季节性模式的系统描述是疾病监测的一个有价值的工具，可以促进在脆弱的老年人群体中预防严重疾病的策略。
In temperate regions, influenza epidemics occur annually with the highest activity occurring during the winter months. While seasonal dynamics of the influenza virus, such as time of onset and circulating strains, are well documented by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Influenza Surveillance System, an accurate prediction of timing, magnitude, and composition of circulating strains of seasonal influenza remains elusive. To facilitate public health preparedness for seasonal influenza and to obtain better insights into the spatiotemporal behavior of emerging strains, it is important to develop measurable characteristics of seasonal oscillation and to quantify the relationships between those parameters on a spatial scale. The objectives of our research were to examine the seasonality of influenza on a national and state level as well as the relationship between peak timing and intensity of influenza in the United States older adult population. A total of 248,889 hospitalization records were extracted from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for the influenza seasons 1991–2004. Harmonic regression models were used to quantify the peak timing and absolute intensity for each of the 48 contiguous states and Washington, DC. We found that individual influenza seasons showed spatial synchrony with consistent late or early timing occurring across all 48 states during each influenza season in comparison to the overall average. On a national level, seasons that had an earlier peak also had higher rates of influenza (rs = −0.5). We demonstrated a spatial trend in peak timing of influenza; western states such as Nevada, Utah, and California peaked earlier and New England States such as Rhode Island, Maine, and New Hampshire peaked later. Our findings suggest that a systematic description of influenza seasonal patterns is a valuable tool for disease surveillance and can facilitate strategies for prevention of severe disease in the vulnerable, older adult population.
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