Storylines of the 2018 Northern Hemisphere heatwave at pre-industrial and higher global warming levels
Storylines of the 2018 Northern Hemisphere heatwave at pre-industrial and higher global warming levels
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2018 年北半球热浪在工业化前和更高的全球变暖水平下的故事情节
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
7.3
通讯作者：
S. Seneviratne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Wehrli;M. Hauser;S. Seneviratne
抽象的。2018年北半球夏季，北方半球大部分地区经历了极端温度（以下简称“NH2018事件”），对受影响国家的农业和社会造成了重大影响。先前的研究强调了事件期间异常的大气环流模式和人类温室气体排放造成的背景变暖是事件的主要驱动因素。在这项研究中，我们提出了地球系统模型实验，研究NH2018事件的不同故事情节，考虑到相同的大气环流和替代背景全球变暖，没有人类印记，2018年的条件，以及不同的平均全球变暖水平1.5，2，3和4摄氏度。结果表明，人类引起的背景变暖是NH2018事件强度的重要贡献者，在全球变暖水平较高的类似大气环流条件下，由此产生的极端事件将达到危险水平。与NH2018事件期间的9%相比，在全球变暖2摄氏度（4摄氏度）和类似的大气环流条件下，调查地区约13%（34%）的居住或农业地区将达到日最高气温超过40摄氏度。
Abstract. Extreme temperatures were experienced over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere during the 2018 boreal summer (hereafter referred to as “NH2018 event”), leading to major impacts on agriculture and society in the affected countries. Previous studies highlighted both the anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns during the event and the background warming due to human greenhouse gas emissions as main drivers of the event. In this study, we present Earth system model experiments investigating different storylines of the NH2018 event given the same atmospheric circulation and alternative background global warming for no human imprint, the 2018 conditions, and different mean global warming levels 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 ∘C. The results reveal that the human-induced background warming was a strong contributor to the intensity of the NH2018 event, and that resulting extremes under similar atmospheric circulation conditions at higher levels of global warming would reach dangerous levels. Compared to 9 % during the NH2018 event, about 13 % (34 %) of the inhabited or agricultural area in the investigated region would reach daily maximum temperatures over 40 ∘C under 2 ∘C (4 ∘C) of global warming and similar atmospheric circulation conditions.
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Cowtan, Kevin;Way, Robert G.
通讯作者：
Way, Robert G.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Drouard, Marie;Kornhuber, Kai;Woollings, Tim
通讯作者：
Woollings, Tim