Evaluating a surrogate endpoint at three levels, with application to vaccine development.

Evaluating a surrogate endpoint at three levels, with application to vaccine development.
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在三个级别上评估替代端点,并应用于疫苗开发。

DOI:
10.1002/sim.3122
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发表时间:
2008-10-15
影响因子:
2
通讯作者:
Self, Steven G.
Self, Steven G.
中科院分区:
医学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Gilbert, Peter B.;Qin, Li;Self, Steven G.

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Identification of an immune response to vaccination that reliably predicts protection from clinically significant infection, i.e. an immunological surrogate endpoint, is a primary goal of vaccine research. Using this problem of evaluating an immunological surrogate as an illustration, we describe a hierarchy of three criteria for a valid surrogate endpoint and statistical analysis frameworks for evaluating them. Based on a placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy trial, the first level entails assessing the correlation of an immune response with a study endpoint in the study groups, and the second level entails evaluating an immune response as a surrogate for the study endpoint that can be used for predicting vaccine efficacy for a setting similar to that of the vaccine trial. We show that baseline covariates, innovative study design, and a potential outcomes formulation can be helpful for this assessment. The third level entails validation of a surrogate endpoint via meta-analysis, where the goal is to evaluate how well the immune response can be used to predict vaccine efficacy for new settings (building bridges). A simulated vaccine trial and two example vaccine trials are presented, one supporting that certain anti-influenza antibody levels are an excellent surrogate for influenza illness and another supporting that certain anti-HIV antibody levels are not useful as a surrogate for HIV infection.
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